What’s At Stake In This Weeks Set Of FIFA World Cup Qualfiers in Europe?
The final international break of 2025 is upon us and for many teams, it will signify a chance to claim a spot at the World Cup Finals in Mexico, Canada and the United States next summer.
Of the 48 teams that will compete (45 qualifiers, plus the three hosts), 28 teams are already known to have qualified and after this set of international fixtures, a significant number more, notably from Europe, will have also confirmed their place in the Finals next summer.
Who Has Qualified?
The teams that have qualified directly for the World Cup Finals next summer are outlined below.
Hosts (3/3) – United States, Mexico, Canada
Oceania (1/1) – New Zealand
South America (6/6) – Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay
Asia (8/8) – Iran, Uzbekistan, South Korea, Jordan, South Korea, Australia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia
Africa (9/9) – Egypt, Senegal, South Africa, Cape Verde Islands, Morocco, Ivory Coast, Algeria, Tunisia, Ghana
Europe (1/16) – England
North & Central America (0/3)
Intercontinental Playoffs Qualifiers (Final 2 Qualifying Spots Available)
South America (1) – Bolivia
Asia (1) – TBC (Iraq or United Arab Emirates)
Africa (1) – TBC (Nigeria, Cameroon, Gabon or DR Congo)
Oceania (1) – New Caledonia
North & Central America (2) – TBC (Two from Curacao, Costa Rica or Panama)
State of Play in European Qualifiers
The 12 Group winners qualify directly for the finals this summer while teams that have at least earned a playoff spot through their Nations League performance will qualify for the Playoffs along with the 12 second-place teams in each group to decide the final four spots at the finals for teams in UEFA.
Depending on how results go this week, the teams still in contention for one of the direct qualification spots for the World Cup Finals, or a place in the UEFA Playoffs to decide the remaining qualifiers in March, are as follows:
- Group A – Germany, Slovakia and Northern Ireland
- Group B – Switzerland, Kosovo, Slovenia and Sweden
- Group C – Denmark and Scotland
- Group D – France, Ukraine and Iceland
- Group E – Spain, Turkey and Georgia
- Group F – Portugal, Hungary, Republic of Ireland and Armenia
- Group G – Netherlands, Poland and Finland
- Group H – Austria, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Romania
- Group I – Norway and Italy
- Group J – Belgium, North Macedonia and Wales
- Group K – England (Qualified), Serbia and Albania chasing playoff spot.
- Group L – Croatia, Czech Republic and Faroe Islands
What Will We Know By The End of the International Break?
By the end of the international break we should know:
- All 12 Group Winners from UEFA
- All 12 Group Runners up from UEFA who qualify for the UEFA World Cup Playoffs.
- All 4 Nations League Qualifiers who didn’t qualify for the UEFA World Cup Playoffs through their group stage performance.
- The 3 Group Winners from North & Central America who qualify for the World Cup Finals
- Which team from Africa will qualify for the Intercontinental Playoffs next year.
- Which team from North & Central America will qualify for the Intercontinental Playoffs next year.
- Which two teams from Asia will qualify for the Intercontinental Playoffs next year.
Next year, the UEFA World Cup Playoffs will decide the final four spots for UEFA teams at the 2026 World Cup Finals, while the Intercontinental Playoffs will decide the final two teams from the other regions around the world to make up the 48 teams at the World Cup next summer.
Key Games for the Home Nations
While England have already qualified, meaning their remaining two games at home to Serbia and away to Albania are meaningless for them (though not for both their opponents), the other three home nations face crucial matches in their bid to qualify for at least a playoff spot, if not to qualify directly to the finals.
Northern Ireland (Group A)
Currently third in Group A behind Germany and Slovakia by three points, Northern Ireland must get a positive result against Slovakia in their opening game of this qualifier. A defeat here would almost certainly eliminate them from contention, especially as Germany face Luxembourg in their first game of the break.
If the Irish can beat Slovakia, then they would draw level with Slovakia on points, and Slovakia would travel to Germany needing to better Northern Ireland’s result against Luxembourg at home in order to knock the Irish out of the playoff spot.
We could even see a three-way tie at the top of the group if Northern Ireland win both their games, Germany beat Luxembourg and then Slovakia beat Germany.
Scotland (Group C)
Scotland have already guaranteed themselves a spot in the playoffs as they are tied with group leaders Denmark on ten points, well ahead of Greece in third.
A tricky trip to Greece lies in store for Scotland in their first game. If they can get a point or better from that game that would set up a deciding final qualifier against Denmark at Hampden Park.
Wales (Group J)
One positive for Wales over Scotland and Northern Ireland is that their Nations League performance has already assured them a UEFA World Cup Playoffs spot next year. However, the Welsh could still finish top, second or third in Group J.
They trail Belgium by four points and North Macedonia by three, but have a game in hand on North Macedonia.
Wales begin with a must-win trip to Liechtenstein and then finish with a crucial home game against North Macedonia. Belgium should top the group given they face Liechtenstein and Kazakhstan in their final two games in qualifying.
By the end of this international break, the vast majority of the qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup Finals in the United States, Canada and Mexico will be known, with just the remaining six teams from the Intercontinental and UEFA playoffs to be decided in March 2026.
