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Champions League Tips: 5th & 6th March
by David Lenton
We didn’t have a great weekend tips wise but we did turn a profit midweek last week and I’d like to keep that trend going.
Looking through the fixtures, my gut reaction and the stats suggest that this could be a solid week for the home teams and I’ve reflected that with my four selections this week. Let’s hope that these tips can get us back into profit quickly and keep adding to the large profit we’ve made over the year from the bookies.
Here’s my Champions League tips for this week, the result of the first leg between the teams is shown in brackets.
Champions League Tips: Tuesday 5th March
March 5, 2019
March 5, 2019
Dortmund’s form has taken a real hit recently, a 0-0 draw at bottom club Nurnburg and a shock 3-2 defeat to Augsburg sees them lead the Bundesliga by goal difference only.
Spurs form too hasn’t been great with a loss at Burnley and Chelsea followed only by a home draw with Arsenal. They do have the advantage of a big lead form the first leg however.
Dortmund paid the price for some slack defending in the second half of that opening match and they will know that any goal for Spurs will effectively end their hopes for sure.
Spurs will be without Dele Alli for the game, though Harry Kane is fit to play. Dortmund will likely start with young England star Jadon Sancho playing on the wing.
The first game between these sides saw two very different halves of football. The first half of the match was cagey and if anything the German side slightly shaded the better of it. However in the second, Spurs burst into life with a goal early on in the half and after that two late goals secured them a healthy 3-0 lead.
With no away goal, Dortmund know that they face a huge task in this leg, needing three to force extra time and if Spurs score a goal, then Dortmund will need five to win. The problem for Dortmund is too that their form has tanked over recent weeks and they are conceding far too many goals.
That should give Spurs real hope of being able to grab a goal which will effectively put the tie to bed and with Harry Kane back in the team and back amongst the goals, two in two games since coming back from injury, I fancy the visitors to find the net.
However, I am not going to get too clever with this one as the form of both sides is so patchy at the moment it is quite hard to predict, hence I am just taking the even money shot on a Dortmund win on the night, but I fully expect Tottenham to progress into the next round with plenty to spare.
Real come into this game on the back of two disheartening home defeats to Barca, the first the Spanish Cup and the second in the league.
Ajax remain five points off the top of the Eredivisie behind rivals PSV, but they are 13 points clear of Feyenoord in third place in the table.
Real Madrid will be without the suspended Sergio Ramos who has been handed a two-match ban for deliberately picking up a yellow card in the first leg of the tie.
Ajax had a goal ruled out by VAR in the first leg and they had more possession, shots on goal and more completed passes in the first game than Madrid.
Ajax probably had a right to feel somewhat unlucky after the first leg. They had a goal ruled out by VAR that was neither clear or unequivocal and which perhaps, should have stood and then after dominating the game late on, they saw Real Madrid score a second sucker punch goal from Asensio to hand the Spaniards the lead heading into the home leg.
Of course, I think Real Madrid will certainly progress and I am expecting them to do so with a win in front of their home crowd. They certainly need a performance too, after losing at home twice to fierce rivals in the space of four days this week. Defeat here to Ajax could well be the last straw for Santiago Solari at the club.
Even with Sergio Ramos suspended for two matches due to deliberately picking up a yellow card in the first leg, the Spaniards should still win the game comfortably, but I think without Ramos at the back, Ajax do have a chance of causing a few worries by grabbing a goal, as they have on the road many times already this season.
In the end, I can see Real winning this game either 2-1 or 3-1 and making relatively comfortable progress, but if Ajax can get that first goal of the game, it could make for an interesting night.
Real Madrid to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £26.30
Paris St Germain have a formidable home record, winning all of their last 14 matches played at the Parc des Princes. They have won the last four in all competitions.
However, Manchester United have won all of their last five away from home and in truth, their best performances under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer have come on the road.
PSG dominated the second half at Old Trafford to secure a 2-0 win in the first leg thanks to goals from Kimpamba and Mbappe.
Striker Edinson Cavani, who missed the first leg with a hip injury, is close to a return for PSG, but may not be risked from the start against United.
The first leg of this game showed the value of experience at this level as PSG, with a squad packed with experience at this level of the game, produced a fine display of counter-attacking to claim a 2-0 win, as United struggled to create anything against the French side following injuries in the first half to two key players, Lingard and Martial.
Martial could be back for the second leg, but United’s injury crisis deepened at the weekend with Alexis Sanchez picking up an injury and with so many players out injured, it is hard to make a case for United to get the win they need to progress, or even push the game into extra time.
Add to that PSG’s dominant home form, they have won all of their last 14 matches at home, and I think we have a game which will see PSG dominate more of the possession, but I think United have a chance of grabbing a goal on the counter, or from a set piece where PSG can be weak.
Even so, I still think PSG will record a win on the night and the away goal for United will prove to be nothing more than a consolation with the French Champions making steady progress into the next round.
PSG to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £30.50
FC Porto lost a key league game at the weekend when they went down to a 2-1 home defeat to arch-rivals Benfica which means they drop to 2nd in the table.
Roma were also well beaten at the weekend as they were humbled 3-0 by Lazio in the Rome derby. That result leaves them in 5th place in the Serie A table.
The first leg between the teams saw youngster Nicolo Zainolo give Roma a 2-0 lead before Adrian Lopez pulled a crucial away goal back for Porto in the 79th minute.
The defeat to Benfica was the first time FC Porto had not won at home in the league since August. Seven of Roma’s last nine games have seen both teams score a goal.
For me, this is undeniably the most even of the second legs being played this week, that Adrian Lopez consolation in the first leg giving FC Porto a real chance to progress on home soil. Roma don’t have a bad away record, despite heavy defeats to Lazio (0-3) and Fiorentina (1-7) in recent times and the Italians do have a habit of scoring on the road with only Lazio and Juventus denying them in recent times.
FC Porto’s home form was excellent until the weekend when they lost to Benfica and in doing so, lost top spot in the Portuguese league. That means that there is added pressure on Sergio Conciecao to get a positive result here against the Italians.
Roma may have won the first leg but Porto dominated the possession in that game and it was just opportunistic finishing by the highly rated Nicolo Zainolo, a local-born Roma youngster, that handed the home side a slight lead heading into the second leg.
I expect Porto to be even more dominant at home, but I still see Roma scoring, especially with the defensive frailties Porto showed at the weekend against Benfica. This is the game I feel is most likely to require extra time or even penalties to decide the winner, as I feel that at the end of 90 minutes FC Porto will win, but Roma will also find the net.
FC Porto to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £39.00
David 'the Cheeky Punter' Lenton is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has also worked for a number of top bookmakers including Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. With such a long time spent dedicated to the gambling industry no one is better placed when it comes to advising punters. Follow on Twitter @thecheekypunter