Champions League Tips: September 26th & 27th

Champions League Football TipsThe second week of group games in the 2017-2018 Champions League get under way this week with eight games on Tuesday, followed by eight more on Wednesday, as usual I’ve got betting tips for both days action.

We had a profitable weekend in the premier league and I’m looking to carry that momentum forward over the next couple of days.

Here’s my tips and predictions for the games taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday night (remember to tune in later this week for my Europa League tips as well).

Champions League Predictions: Tuesday 26th September

September 26, 2017
Borussia Dortmund
VS
Real Madrid
Westfahlenstadion
7:45 pm
Borussia Dortmund Logo
Borussia Dortmund
VS
Real Madrid Logo
Real Madrid
September 26, 2017
Westfahlenstadion
7:45 pm
Key Stats
  • The teams have met 12 times in total in the UCL, Madrid winning four games, Dortmund three and five draws.
  • The teams met in Group F of last season’s competition and both games between the teams finished in a 2-2 scoreline.
  • Real have never won in Dortmund on any of their six visits, losing three times and drawing three times.
  • Dortmund are top of the Bundesliga with five wins and a draw in six games. Real Madrid lie 4th in La Liga, with eleven points from six games, seven points behind leaders Barcelona.
Analysis:

Dortmund and Real Madrid are no strangers to each other in European competition having met twelve times in the Champions League alone in recent times. Real hold a slight advantage in the fixture but they are yet to win in any of their six trips to Dortmund.

The home side come into this game on top of the Bundesliga with five wins and a draw in their opening six games, but they were humbled 3-1 at Wembley by Tottenham in the opening week of fixtures. As such, the German side will know they need to get something from this clash.

Real Madrid picked up a win over APOEL in their opening Champions League game but their league form, especially at home, hasn’t been great and with Spurs likely to win in Cyprus, they will want to keep pace with Spurs ahead of the games between the two teams on Match Weeks 3 and 4.

That said, Real’s poor form in Germany in general does worry me here and they are certainly not in the form they showed at the end of last season when they won this trophy. Dortmund at home are very strong and while Real won’t lose, I don’t think they’ll get three points here either.

Draw - £10 returns £39.00
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September 26, 2017
Spartak Moscow
VS
Liverpool
Otkrytiye Arena
7:45 pm
Spartak Moscow Logo
Spartak Moscow
VS
Liverpool Logo
Liverpool
September 26, 2017
Otkrytiye Arena
7:45 pm
Key Stats
  • The teams have met four times in the Champions League before, Spartak winning twice in 1992, before Liverpool’s claimed two victories ten years later.
  • Liverpool’s win at Leicester at the weekend was their first win in five games. Sadio Mane should return to the team after being suspended for the last three domestic games.
  • Spartak are sixth in the Russian Premier League with 14 points from 11 games, winning three, drawing five and losing three of their games.
  • Both teams have defensive weaknesses, Liverpool conceding 11 goals in 6 League games, while Spartak have conceded 17 in 11 League games.
Analysis:

The one big stat that sticks out like a sore thumb with both these teams is their defensive records. Both teams leak goals at an alarming rate and that immediately means to me that the both teams to score box should be well and truly ticked for this game.

When it comes to quality, Liverpool clearly have the edge and against a side like Spartak, the pace of the Reds attack could be the decisive factor here. Spartak have struggled to pick up wins domestically against lesser sides than Liverpool and this could be a tough game for them.

The Russian’s weren’t too impressive when they drew against Maribor Branik in the first group game and while they have home advantage here, I think Liverpool are set up to counter-attack against teams like Spartak. Coutinho, Mane and Salah will hit them very hard and with the Russian’s defence so porous, I can’t see the home side causing Liverpool similar problems.

Liverpool are a streaky team and wins tend to come in bunches and after claiming a vital win at Leicester, I think Klopp’s men will get another big and much-needed win here.

Liverpool win & both teams to score - £10 returns £34.00
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UCL Tips: Wednesday 27th September

September 27, 2017
Atletico Madrid
VS
Chelsea
Wanda Metropolitano
7:45 pm
Atletico Madrid Logo
Atletico Madrid
VS
Chelsea Logo
Chelsea
September 27, 2017
Wanda Metropolitano
7:45 pm
Key Stats
  • The teams have met four times in the Champons League, both teams have won one game apiece, with two drawn games.
  • The teams also bet in the 2012 UEFA Super Cup Final, which Atletico Madrid won comprehensively 4-1 in Monaco.
  • Chelsea are third in the Premier League with 13 points from 6 games, while Atletico lie second in La Liga with 14 points from 6 games.
  • David Luiz should return for Chelsea after missing the Stoke game due to suspension. Thibault Courtois should be fine to play against his former club too.
Analysis:

Few teams in this competition have the ability to grind out the important results quite like Atletico Madrid. Indeed in each of the past four years, the only team to have knocked them out of this competition have been city rivals Real Madrid, twice in the final.

In that time, Atletico have taken on and beaten many of European football’s top teams including a semi final win over Chelsea back in 2014. In that time, Chelsea’s European performances have been somewhat more modest but they are improving under Antonio Conte.

This is a match between two teams who will harbour genuine ambitions of winning this competition and as such, it is an acid test for both. Chelsea have the players to hurt Atletico, but the home side are past masters at nullifying the threat posed by even the most dangerous attacking sides in Europe.

This will be very close and I think one goal will decide it just in the favour of the home side.

Atletico Madrid To Win To Nil - £10 returns £34.50
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September 27, 2017
PSG
VS
Bayern Munich
Parc des Princes
7:45 pm
PSG Logo
PSG
VS
Bayern Munich Logo
Bayern Munich
September 27, 2017
Parc des Princes
7:45 pm
Key Stats
  • These teams have met just twice before back in the 2000/2001 Champions League, PSG winning 1-0 in Paris, with Bayern winning the return tie in Munich 2-0.
  • PSG are top of Ligue One with 5 wins and a draw from six games. Bayern are currently third in the Bundesliga with 13 points from six games.
  • Neymar missed PSG’s 0-0 draw at Montpellier at the weekend, but should be fit for the clash with Bayern Munich. Mbappe will also likely start for the home side.
  • A huge miss for Bayern is the absence of ‘keeper Manuel Neuer through injury. His absence has been key in Bayern’s less than impressive start to the season.
Analysis:

Bayern Munich have not been their imperious selves in the Bundesliga and a lot of that has been put down to the loss of goalkeeper Manuel Neuer with a long term injury. Without him, Bayern have looked susceptible defensively and have already lost to Hoffenheim and drew at home to Wolfsburg at the weekend.

There’s also rumours that star striker Robert Lewandowski is unhappy and wants away, so too may Thomas Muller, and with Ribery and Robben now getting on, is this the break up of what was once a Champions League winning team?

In contrast, PSG are building and with Neymar and Mbappe added this summer to an already talented squad, PSG’s aim this season is clear, to win the Champions League or at least go very close. They’ve started the season imperiously and looked superb when beating Celtic 5-0 in their Champions League opener.

With no Manuel Neuer and worries defensively, I can only see a PSG win here, though I do think Bayern are good enough to find the net.

PSG win & both teams to score - £10 returns £29.50
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the Cheeky Punter

the Cheeky Punter

The Cheeky Punter is an professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has worked for a number of top bookmakers including Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. He's also written for a number of leading news outlets including the Guardian, i (newspaper) and Soccer Lens. More about him here.

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