For a change, Gareth Southgate’s England head into a major summer tournament without the added pressure of the media hyping the team up to the extent where not winning the event would be a massive disappointment.
The million-dollar question for England fans this summer is just how far can Gareth Southgate’s team go in this tournament?
I’m going to attempt to answer that question by previewing the most popular England betting markets and sharing my tips for each.
England Stage Of Elimination
|Group Stage||6.0 (5/1)|
|Last 16||3.20 (11/5)|
|Quarter Finals||3.20 (11/5)|
|Semi Finals||6.0 (5/1)|
|Runner Up||11.0 (10/1)|
How Far Will England Go?
Unlike Brazil 2014, which saw England drawn into a tough group, the draw for 2018 was kinder with Belgium as the seeded team drawn with England but the two European giants also drew two of the weaker teams in the competition in Panama and Tunisia as their other group opponents. Furthermore, the draw for the order of games means that England won’t meet Belgium until the third game.
By that point, I think England and Belgium would both likely have six points apiece and should already be qualified for the knockout phase, which may mean both teams resting key players in their final group game. I think it is a fair bet to assume that England will get out of the group stage this time around.
In that first knockout phase, the winner or runner up in Group G will play the winner or runner up in Group H. That is a very even group between Poland, Senegal, Colombia and Japan. Personally, I think Poland and Colombia will make it through and in truth, I’d fancy England’s to do well against either of these teams (or indeed Senegal or Japan if they make it through) and reach the quarter finals.
It’s now things get interesting as England would then likely face one of the two quarter finalists from Groups E and F. That is likely to be Brazil or Germany and it is here that I feel England’s journey will most likely come to an end.
Prediction: England to be eliminated in the quarter finals – £10 returns £32.00 with Bet365.
England’s Top Scorer
|Harry Kane||2.25 (5/4)|
|Raheem Sterling||7.0 (6/1)|
|Dele Alli||8.0 (7/1)|
|Jamie Vardy||9.0 (8/1)|
|Marcus Rashford||10.0 (9/1)|
|Jesse Lingard||13.0 (12/1)|
|Danny Welbeck||17.0 (16/1)|
To see full market and odds click here.
Who Will Be England’s Top Goalscorer?
If England are to fulfil my prediction of reaching the quarter final stage of the tournament before bowing out, then they are likely going to need a fair few goals to do so on the way. While World Cup thumpings are rare, England could run in a few goals against Panama and Tunisia if they hit top form and that makes the Top Scorer market an interesting option.
For the best chance in this market, you need to try and second-guess the formation and team that Gareth Southgate will pick. Looking at the squad, I think his 3-4-2-1 formation is the most likely with three centre-backs, two holding midfielders alongside two attacking wing-backs, then two attack-minded midfielders backing up a solitary striker.
For me that solitary striker has to be Harry Kane and unsurprisingly, the Tottenham man is 5/4 to be England’s top goalscorer in the tournament. It is hard to argue with that given the goalscoring season he has had, plus the way England line up. It’s unlikely that either of the two attacking midfielders (likely to be Dele Alli and Raheem Sterling, who have just two international goals apiece each) will challenge Kane for this honour.
Prediction: Shocking I know but I’m going for Harry Kane – £10 returns £22.50 with Bet365.
Group Finishing Position
|1st (top)||2.10 (5/4)|
|4th (last)||21.0 (20/1)|
Where Will England Finish In Group G?
Last time in the World Cup, England finished bottom of their group, so anything other than a 4th place finish would be an improvement, but in truth, England should beat Panama and Tunisia to claim one of the two qualifying spots. It’s just whether it will be top or second in the table.
In truth, I think goal difference will likely decide the group as I can see Belgium and England resting key men for their second round game, if both win their two opening games. As such, I think the Belgium v England game will likely be a draw and if that happens, then the team with the best goal difference will top the group.
Therefore, I think Belgium with their potent attacking threat are more likely to run up more goals against Panama and Tunisia and thus claim top spot, meaning I’d back England to finish second in the group.
Prediction: England to finish 2nd in Group G – £10 returns £20.00 with Betvictor.
England’s Total Group Points
How Many Points Will England Get In Group G?
Last time around at the World Cup, England finished with one point in their group. If they don’t achieve at least six this time around, that would be judged to be a poor performance by Southgate’s men in what is not a particularly difficult group.
You can back 6 points and 7 points at the same price of 3.75 (11/4) with BetVictor and I do believe England will win both their opening games, sending them into a final game decider for winner of the group with Belgium. I’ve already said what I think will happen in this situation (a draw) and as such, I think 7 points is the better bet here.
Prediction: England to score 7 points in Group G – £10 returns £37.50 with Betvictor.
Can England Win the World Cup?
BetVictor currently have England as the 16/1 seventh-favourite to win the World Cup this summer, with Brazil at 9/2 alongside Germany as the two joint-favourites. Other teams ranked ahead of England are France and Spain (both 6/1), Argentina (9/1) and Belgium (10/1).
I think those odds are fair for a largely untested team at this level. The Three Lions should do better than in Brazil and recent results have been encouraging (even if performances have lacked a little glitter at times). Of course, England can win the World Cup if everything goes their way and they hit top form and other teams have off days. But that is not likely to happen by any means.
Like I said, I think a spirited battling performance through to the quarter finals will be a decent return for this England team, especially with Germany or Brazil likely to be lying in wait there.
Prediction: Sorry folks but I don’t think so – save your money and back someone else!
All odds listed are correct at time of publication.