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Europa League Tips: Thursday 14th March
by David Lenton
We had a decent midweek last time out, covering our bets in the Champions League and then we made a nice profit on the Europa League games on the Thursday, which is good way to start off March.
Chelsea and Napoli both won to nil in this competition last week putting us up against the bookies for the round.
There’s been more than a few unusual results over the last few weeks in all competitions which I think has dented the profits a little, but I am hopeful that this quartet of tips for Thursday night will come up trumps.
Here’s my top tips for four of Thursday’s Europa League ties.
Europa League Betting Tips: Thursday 14th March
March 14, 2019
March 14, 2019
Dynamo Kyiv lie second in the Ukrainian Premier League behind Shakhtar Donetsk. They have a decent record at home against English teams, but not on the road.
Chelsea have won two of the three of the games they have played in Europe against Ukrainian opponents over the years. They won this competition back in 2014.
Mauricio Sarri may well elect to rest some key men having secured a strong first leg lead, with fringe players like Hudson Odoi and Loftus Cheek coming into the team.
Other than the win last week, Chelsea played Dynamo back in the Champions League in 2015, winning in London and then drawing in Kyiv.
Chelsea put in a dominant display at Stamford Bridge in the first game between the teams, earning a 3-0 victory which puts them with one foot into the quarter-finals. Chelsea will know that anything less than an utter capitulation in Kiev should see them safely through into the next round.
While Chelsea have stuttered at times this season, most notably away to Manchester City recently, Kyiv are not a side on a par with Pep Guardiola’s team and in truth, I can see Chelsea scoring a goal that should ease their path through to the next phase relatively comfortably.
I think with that away goal in the bag, Chelsea won’t be unduly concerned if Kyiv score a couple of goals in reply, which they could well do on home soil as they have a decent goalscoring record in this competition against some top quality sides.
As such, I can probably see Kiev, just shading this one, although I was tempted by the draw, but I feel backing Kiev to win and both teams to score offers such a good return that it is a bet well worth a little flutter for value alone.
Dynamo Kiev to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £70.00
This will be Napoli’s first visit to Austria as the club have never played Austrian teams in European competition until this tie with RB Salzburg.
Salzburg have a decent recent record against Italian sides at home, beating Lazio twice on home soil and also holding Juventus in this competition.
Midfielder Schlager is suspended for the home team, while for Napoli defenders Koulibaly and Maksimovic will both also miss the game through suspension.
Salzburg have won all of their home games in the competition this season, including a 4-0 win over Club Brugge in the last round of the tournament.
After a dominant first leg in Naples, Napoli are another team that look to have one foot in the quarter-finals of the competition. I was surprised with the ease with which they defeated a Salzburg side who up until that point had been one of the most consistent winning teams in this competition this season.
I expected the Austrian side to make it much tougher than it was for the Italians and as such, even though Salzburg’s record against Italian sides of late is much improved, I cant’ really back them to win the home leg.
Napoli showed real quality in attack in the last game and I don’t think Ancelotti’s side will lose the game however with a three goal advantage, I think they will simply seek to manage it and make steady progress into the next round.
As such, I can see Salzburg scoring, but I also feel Napoli will do so too and that away goal will kill the tie completely and as such, I think a draw and both teams to score offers a good value bet.
The Gunners will be without suspended duo Papasthatopoulos and Lacazette for the game with Rennes. The French side have no players suspended for this game.
Arsenal will also be without a number of injured defenders and that could mean a reshuffle at the back for Emery to ponder in what is now a crucial game for the club.
Rennes won their last away game 3-1 in Seville against Betis in the last round but in their only previous trip to England they lost 1-0 to Aston Villa in 2001.
Arsenal’s home record against French teams is above average winning five, drawing four and losing three of the 12 home games they have played against Ligue 1 teams.
After their 2-0 win over Manchester United at the weekend, Arsenal will come into this game in a much more positive frame of mind and they needed that after what was a very poor first leg display in France.
I think the Gunners perhaps underestimated Rennes a little and the French side showed their counter attacking class to put the Gunners to the sword, taking advantage of the visitors being down to 10-men following Papasthatopoulos’ sending off.
His absence could be a problem for Arsenal who are already short of cover in defence and that could see a reshuffle required by Unai Emery in the back line. That may well play into Rennes hand as they proved last week they are more than capable of grabbing a goal.
I of course fancy Arsenal to bounce back with a win, they have won their last eight league games at home, but I do feel Rennes will also get a goal. Whether that is enough to put them through, or force extra time though I am not 100% sure about.
Arsenal to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £28.80
Inter warmed up for this game with a 2-0 win over SPAL, a victory which kept them in fourth place in Serie A, one place and point behind rivals Milan.
Frankfurt had the disadvantage of playing their Bundesliga game this weekend on Monday night. Before that game they lay in 6th place in the table.
Inter will be without Asamoah and Martinez who are both suspended for the game, Gelson Fernandes is suspended for Frankfurt for the tie in Italy.
The game in Frankfurt was the only time the two teams had played each other previously. Frankfurt keeper Kevin Trapp saved a Brozovic penalty to ensure the game finished 0-0.
I was a bit disappointed with how this game turned out in the end. Inter Milan came with a clear game plan into the game and to be fair to the Italian side, it worked very well in nullifying the attacking threat Eintracht Frankfurt possess and which has served them so well in the competition thus far.
Indeed, had ex-PSG keeper Kevin Trapp not saved Marcelo Brozovic’s penalty, then the Italians would have likely been celebrating an excellent win. As it is, they will head into the second leg with real confidence after a very solid display in Germany.
However, Frankfurt will also know that counter attacking Inter could well be their best option of grabbing a goal and I don’t think Inter are good enough to keep Frankfurt out for another 90 minutes. If Frankfurt do get a goal then I think this could make this a very interesting tie.
I am backing the Germans to score on the counter and while I can see Inter grabbing a goal too, I am not convinced they have enough to then push on to grab the win and as such, I am backing the draw here.
David 'the Cheeky Punter' Lenton is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has also worked for a number of top bookmakers including Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. With such a long time spent dedicated to the gambling industry no one is better placed when it comes to advising punters. Follow on Twitter @thecheekypunter