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FA Cup 4th Round Tips: 25th & 26th January

FA Cup TipsWe’re back into things with the FA Cup this weekend where it’s very easy to look a bit of a mug if you can’t second guess the likely team selections for these games.

As such, with these tips and predictions, I have tried to make it clear in my analysis of the game how I see teams lining up, based on how managers have approached similar games in the past. It’s not an infallible way to do things, but it is about the best available.

As you can probably tell, I am not the most confident with this selection of tips, so any bets I make would probably be smaller than usual, however who knows, maybe the football gods will be kind to us.

Here’s this weekend’s FA Cup tips.

Football Betting Tips: Saturday 25th January

January 25, 2020
Brentford
VS
Leicester
Griffin Park
12:30 pm
Brentford Logo
Brentford
VS
Leicester Logo
Leicester
January 25, 2020
Griffin Park
12:30 pm
Key Stats
  • Brentford are unbeaten at home since losing 1-0 to Huddersfield in early November.
  • Leicester have gone three without a win against Burnley, Southampton and Aston Villa.
  • Brentford have not beaten Leicester since a 3-2 win back in March 1953.
  • The teams have played just 27 times. Leicester winning 11 to Brentford’s six.
Analysis:

Brentford come into this game in a strong position, lying 4th in the Championship and in especially good form at home. Only West Brom and QPR have scored more goals in the Championship than Brentford and they will surely provide a stern test for a Leicester side that has been struggling in its recent games.

Defeats in the EPL to Southampton and Burnley, plus a 1-1 draw with Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup semifinal 1st leg means Leicester are now three games without a win before their midweek game on Wednesday against West Ham this evening. They will be hoping to land three points there ahead of this cup tie on Saturday.

Even so, I can still see Brendan Rodgers resting some players for this tie and that is a worry for me as this is a very talented Brentford side and while I think Leicester will name a squad strong enough to avoid defeat, they may well need a replay in order to make it into the next round of the competition.

With both sides scoring goals, I do see them both finding the net here with a 1-1 draw being the most likely outcome in my view.

Draw & both teams to score - £10 returns £48.00
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January 25, 2020
Southampton
VS
Tottenham
St Mary's
3:00 pm
Southampton Logo
Southampton
VS
Tottenham Logo
Tottenham
January 25, 2020
St Mary's
3:00 pm
Key Stats
  • Saints have lost just one of their last eight in all competitions, moving to 9th.
  • Spurs now have the same number of points (31) as Southampton in the EPL and lie 8th.
  • The teams met on New Year’s Day with Southampton winning 1-0 at St Mary’s.
  • Saints have won their last two home games v Spurs (2-1 in 2019, 1-0 in Jan 2020).
Analysis:

Although Saints have won their last two home games with Spurs, since they returned to the EPL in 2012, Spurs have held the sway in this fixture with 11 wins from 16 games, Saints winning just three in that time with two draws.

That said, the absence of Harry Kane has dealt Spurs a huge blow in attack and that has been evident in recent games where they have failed to finish chances. With little to play for in terms of trophies, I do expect Spurs to play a relatively strong side here, despite having a midweek Premier League game.

Saints position has been eased by a superb run of form that has included a win over Spurs in the league at St Mary’s and they are playing with some real freedom now. As such, even if they rest a couple of players here, I do feel that they will be more than capable of giving Spurs a real test and perhaps winning the game.

I think personnel changes may open up this game a little more than the league encounter and with neither side wanting a replay, I expect them both to go for it and as such, I am just about favouring the home side to land a 2-1 victory here.

Southampton to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £48.00
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January 25, 2020
West Ham
VS
West Brom
London Stadium
3:00 pm
West Ham Logo
West Ham
VS
West Brom Logo
West Brom
January 25, 2020
London Stadium
3:00 pm
Key Stats
  • The Hammers lie in 17th in the EPL only above the relegation zone on goal difference.
  • WBA are top of the Championship a point ahead of Leeds, losing just 3 times this season.
  • The teams have both won 40 out of the 105 games played between them (25 draws).
  • Four of the last seven games between the teams have finished as a draw.
Analysis:

Things are so tight at the bottom of the Premier League that new West Ham boss David Moyes must be very worried with his side sitting outside the drop zone by virtue of goal difference alone. Moyes therefore will likely be prioritising his sides league form and I would expect him to name a much changed side to that which played in the EPL in midweek.

Similarly, with West Brom embroiled in a tussle with Leeds at the top of the Championship, and also in a bit of a run of sticky form, I can see Slaven Bilic deciding to follow suit and rest a couple of players here.

For me, I am really not convinced by this West Ham team. They do not score anywhere near enough goals, they conceded way too many and they are sorely lacking confidence and against a top of the table team that is a worry.

I can’t quite see West Brom doing a number on the Hammers here, but I can see this one ending all square after 90 minutes.

Draw - £10 returns £37.00
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Football Predictions: Sunday 26th January

January 26, 2020
Shrewsbury Town
VS
Liverpool
Montgomery Waters Meadow
5:00 pm
Shrewsbury Town Logo
Shrewsbury Town
VS
Liverpool Logo
Liverpool
January 26, 2020
Montgomery Waters Meadow
5:00 pm
Key Stats
  • The Shews are 16th in the League One table on 34 points after 25 games.
  • Liverpool are top of the Premier league and beat Everton in the last round 1-0.
  • Liverpool will rest a number of top stars for this game.
  • The teams met back in 1996 in Shrewsbury, Liverpool winning the game 4-0.
Analysis:

Shrewsbury Town don’t score many goals, just 26 in League One this season and only Bolton Wanderers have scored fewer goals. Liverpool have conceded one goal in their last 12 games, but it is worth noting that this will be a much changed Liverpool side and that could give the Shrews a chance here, at least to get a goal.

Defensively, Liverpool’s effective ‘B’ team could struggle to cope with Shrewsbury’s physicality at times, and while I expect Liverpool to have most of the possession, and to win the game, I do think that although the stats tend to suggest otherwise, Shrewsbury fans could at least celebrate a goal against the Premier League leaders. Which has been a rarity in recent weeks.

Even if Liverpool do play a below-strength team (which they will), the youngsters coming in such as Jones, Williams, Phillips plus the likes of Lallana, Shaqiri, Origi and Matip mean that the Reds should still have more than enough quality to win.

I think Liverpool will win the game comfortably but I do have a sneaky feeling that the home side may get the satisfaction of a goal.

Liverpool to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £29.00
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Author: David Lenton

David Lenton
David 'the Cheeky Punter' Lenton is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has also worked for a number of top bookmakers including Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. With such a long time spent dedicated to the gambling industry no one is better placed when it comes to advising punters. Follow on Twitter @thecheekypunter