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FA Cup 5th Round Tips: 16th, 17th & 18th Feb

FA Cup TipsNot the best set of results for me last weekend, but given that I’ve been piling up the wins in the weeks beforehand, I suppose I was due a quiet week.

Still, I am sure I am not the only one who was surprised by a few results last weekend, such as Cardiff’s win at Southampton and the scale of Manchester City’s thrashing of Chelsea.

This week we move away from the Premier League for a weekend as we head back to the FA Cup.

There’s a real mix of games in this selection of tips due to the somewhat unusual make up of teams left remaining in the tournament and the fact that the odds available on Manchester City beating Newport make them pretty much unbackable in that game.

So without any further ado, here’s my tips for the FA Cup ties played from Saturday 16th to Monday 18th February inclusive.

Footie Tips: Saturday 16th Feb

February 16, 2019
Brighton
VS
Derby County
AMEX Stadium
12:30 pm
Brighton Logo
Brighton
VS
Derby County Logo
Derby County
February 16, 2019
AMEX Stadium
12:30 pm
Key Stats
  • Brighton’s only two wins in 2019 so far have both been in the FA Cup, both by 3-1 scorelines against Bournemouth and then in a replay against West Brom.
  • Derby reached this stage of the FA Cup by beating Southampton after a replay on penalties and then earning a 1-0 away win over Accrington Stanley.
  • Brighton are 14th in the Premier League with 27 points from 26 games. Derby are 7th in the Championship with 50 points from their 30 games.
  • The teams last met in March 2017, Brighton winning 3-0. Brighton also won the last game between the teams in the FA Cup, a 3-1 victory back in January 1961.
Analysis:

This could well be a very tricky afternoon for the Seagulls. We’ve reached the phase of the tournament now where games will be decided by extra time and penalties if necessary and I feel that this is going to be the likely outcome of this clash between a talented, young Derby side and a Brighton side that is seriously out of form.

A combination of Brighton’s poor form in the league and teams below them picking up results has seen the Seagulls drawn into the relegation battle in recent weeks and that will mean the focus on this game with Derby is not as sharp as it could have been. Derby in contrast are going well in the Championships and have already beaten Southampton and Manchester United on penalties, away from home, in cup competitions this season.

Frank Lampard is doing a great job with this team, taking on loan a number of players from the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool to improve the quality in the squad and while Derby do have off days from time to time, they have performed at their best against better quality opponents.

Brighton will find this tough and in truth, I think this is a match which will see the sides level at the end of 90 minutes and I would not put it past Derby to snatch the win either in extra time or on penalties once again.

Draw - £10 returns £36.00
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February 16, 2019
AFC Wimbledon
VS
Millwall
Kingsmeadow
3:00 pm
AFC Wimbledon Logo
AFC Wimbledon
VS
Millwall Logo
Millwall
February 16, 2019
Kingsmeadow
3:00 pm
Key Stats
  • AFC Wimbledon defeated Fleetwood 3-2 in Round 3 and then West Ham 4-2 in the 4th Round to reach the fifth round of the FA Cup.
  • Millwall beat fellow Championship side Hull 2-1 in the 3rd round before earning a 3-2 win over Everton in the fourth to reach this stage.
  • Millwall are 20th in the Championship with 30 points from their 30 games played, just four clear of the relegation places. AFC Wimbledon are bottom of League One.
  • The teams have met just four times previously, Millwall are yet to taste defeat having beaten AFC Wimbledon twice in cup games and both league games between the teams were draws.
Analysis:

You’d have got long odds on this being a fifth round tie at the start of the FA Cup Third Round but both sides have completed a giant-killing on their way to the final with AFC Wimbledon’s cup form in particular in stark contrast to their dire performances in League One, where they sit rock bottom of the table and seemingly set to drop back down to League Two.

Millwall have fared a little better in the Championship but they are by no means safe from relegation just yet and while this FA Cup run will bring in some welcome finances, they know that a quarterfinal spot would leave them just one game from Wembley and that should be a massive incentive for Neil Harris’ side.

However, AFC Wimbledon have performed well above themselves in the cup this season as West Ham can attest to, however I feel Millwall are a different, grittier and more industrious side, the kind of side AFC Wimbledon have struggled against in League One and that is why I am backing the visitors to win inside 90 minutes today.

Millwall to win - £10 returns £19.50
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Football Tips & Predictions: Sunday 17th February

February 17, 2019
Bristol City
VS
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Ashton Gate
1:00 pm
Bristol City Logo
Bristol City
VS
Wolverhampton Wanderers Logo
Wolverhampton Wanderers
February 17, 2019
Ashton Gate
1:00 pm
Key Stats
  • Bristol come into this game in great form having won all of their last eight and they lie 6th in the Championship table with 50 points from 30.
  • Wolves are seventh in the Premier League table with 39 points from 26 games after their 1-1 draw with Newcastle United on Monday night.
  • City beat Huddersfield and Bolton to reach this stage of the tournament, Wolves defeating Liverpool and then Shrewsbury in a replay to do likewise.
  • Wolves have a superb recent record in this fixture losing just two of the last 18 games between the teams, all those games being league clashes.
Analysis:

Wolves solid form in the league and cup competitions in 2019 has been a real boon for their fans and they will already believe that with a favourable draw, they could stand a great chance of getting to Wembley, especially having already knocked out Liverpool in the third round.

However, to do that their next step is to beat a Bristol City side that has an excellent cup pedigree at home and who are in superb form themselves, having won all of their last eight games in all competitions and who are pushing hard for promotion from the Championship this season.

In truth, Wolves have shown their class against better quality sides in the Premier League this season while struggling at times against the lesser teams and that could be a worry here for their fans against a high quality Robins side who beat Manchester United on home soil last season.

As such, as talented as this Wolves team is, I don’t think they are at their best against sides like Bristol City and I am backing the home side to cause one of the shocks of the round and claim a win here.

Bristol City to win - £10 returns £46.00
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FA Cup Tips: Monday 18th Feb

February 18, 2019
Chelsea
VS
Man Utd
Stamford Bridge
7:30 pm
Chelsea Logo
Chelsea
VS
Man Utd Logo
Man Utd
February 18, 2019
Stamford Bridge
7:30 pm
Key Stats
  • Chelsea beat Notts Forest 2-0 and then Sheffield Wednesday by a 3-0 scoreline to progress through to the fifth round of the FA Cup.
  • Manchester United beat Reading 2-0 in the third round and then earned a 3-1 win at Arsenal in the fourth to claim a spot in the fifth round.
  • United’s improved form has seen them move up to 4th in the Premier League one point ahead of Arsenal and Chelsea who are 5th and 6th respectively.
  • United have won just two of the last 17 games with Chelsea, the Londoners winning nine of those games with six finishing as draws.
Analysis:

It’s rare that I stretch my predictions into Monday games but with the standout game of the FA Cup taking place on Monday between Chelsea and Manchester United, it would have been remiss of me had I not included this game in my tips.

Chelsea desperately need a result to appease their fans after their shambolic loss to Manchester City last weekend. However, Manchester United are the form team in the Premier League right now and they are certainly not going to be pushovers, despite having a somewhat awful record against Chelsea over recent times.

What will be interesting is the team Mauricio Sarri elects to play in this game with so many players heavily criticised in that game with City. Will he make wholesale changes, or will he allow those who played a chance to redeem themselves?

This is a game that I think will require extra time to resolve and while I have a sneaky feeling that Man Utd will go through, I think that at 90 minutes, this one will be all square.

Chelsea v Man Utd – Draw - £10 returns £35.00
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*Tips are exactly that tips (predictions) and do not guarantee success.

Author: David Lenton

David Lenton
David 'the Cheeky Punter' Lenton is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has also worked for a number of top bookmakers including Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. With such a long time spent dedicated to the gambling industry no one is better placed when it comes to advising punters. Follow on Twitter @thecheekypunter