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Football Betting Tips: 10th & 11th September

We didn’t have much luck with the last selection of football tips, although how England’s equaliser against Spain was disallowed is beyond me…!

I can only assume the referee felt that Danny Welbeck was guilty of the crime of standing still in the penalty area to disallow the goal that would have seen us at least land a winner there.

The fact that international football often throws together two disparate teams with officials not used to refereeing in these types of games, often makes them tough to predict, but I’m still confident we can pick up some profit in the second set of games.

Here are my tips for the next couple of days.

Football Betting Tips: Monday 10th September

September 10, 2018
Portugal
VS
Italy
Estadio de Luz
7:45 pm
Portugal Logo
Portugal
VS
Italy Logo
Italy
September 10, 2018
Estadio de Luz
7:45 pm
Key Stats
  • The first game in Group A3 saw Italy draw 1-1 at home to Poland in Roberto Mancini’s first game in charge of the Azzuri.
  • Before Italy’s draw, Portugal also battled out a 1-1 draw as they took on World Cup finalists Croatia at the Estadio Algarve.
  • Portugal have not included Cristiano Ronaldo in their first squad since the World Cup with his future as an international still unknown.
  • Italy have won just one of their last six games, drawing three. Their solitary victory was an unimpressive 2-1 win over Saudi Arabia prior to the World Cup.
Analysis:

Both these teams warmed up for this game with a draw, Italy earning a point against Poland thanks to Jorginho’s penalty, while Portugal were drawing at home to Croatia in the Estadio Algarve, Pepe’s goal cancelling out an early strike from Perisic.

In truth, without Ronaldo, Portugal are an extremely average side, well organised defensively but lacking any real threat and quality going forward. Similarly, I think the Italians defence is experienced and solid, but I don’t see a huge amount of goals at this level from an attack which is now back relying on the talented but temperamental Mario Balotelli.

For me, this is a game where I can see the defences of both sides coming out on top and I think that would only change if there was an early goal in the game, which I feel is unlikely. However to allow for more flexibility, I am not going to go for the 0-0 draw here, but instead back any draw, which is still good value with the bookies.

Draw - £10 returns £31.00
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September 10, 2018
Scotland
VS
AEK Athens
Hampden Park
7:45 pm
Scotland Logo
Scotland
VS
AEK Athens Logo
AEK Athens
September 10, 2018
Hampden Park
7:45 pm
Key Stats
  • Scotland were thumped 4-0 at by Belgium in their warm up fixture with three goals coming from poor defensive mistakes by the Scots.
  • Albania opened their Nations League tournament in fine form with a solid 1-0 win over Israel thanks to Taulent Xhaka’s second half strike.
  • Scotland have won just one of their last five, losing the other four and they have scored just one goal in those five games which came in the 1-0 win over Hungary.
  • The two teams have never met previously either in tournament football or in a friendly.
Analysis:

There’s no other way to say it but Scotland were shocking against Belgium defensively. The talented Belgian side don’t need any help to beat any team, as they proved at the World Cup, but three horrendous defensive mistakes contributed greatly to the Scots 4-0 home humiliation.

Alex McLeish has said his team are ‘spitting blood’ in their thirst to put that result right and the bookies have them as the hot favourites to win this one against Albania, in the first ever clash between the two countries.

However, I am not so sure. Albania are a much improved team nowadays and their squad, on paper, is certainly the match of Scotland and I feel they are a much better organised team, more experienced and certainly adept enough to cause the Scots problems. It is these games in particular, where Scotland are favourites that they tend to come unstuck.

As such, I think the odds on Albania to win by any scoreline is such great value that it is a bet I cannot overlook.

Albania to win - £10 returns £41.00
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Football Tips: Tuesday 11th September

September 11, 2018
Spain
VS
Croatia
Martinez Valero
7:45 pm
Spain Logo
Spain
VS
Croatia Logo
Croatia
September 11, 2018
Martinez Valero
7:45 pm
Key Stats
  • Spain won their opening Nations League fixture 2-1 away to England on Saturday following on from a disappointing World Cup performance.
  • Croatia drew 1-1 with Portugal in their friendly game prior to Spain’s game. Ivan Perisic grabbing an early goal before a Pepe equaliser.
  • Croatia are without a couple of key men from their World Cup final team including striker Mario Mandzukic and goalkeeper Danijel Subasic.
  • The teams have met six times in total, Spain have won three times, Croatia two with one draw. The last game between the teams was Croatia’s 2-1 win at Euro 2016.
Analysis:

Spain’s big win over England at Wembley on Saturday puts them in the driving seat in Group A4 and a win here will give them total control of the group and leave them needing just one point to top the group.

However, a Croatia win will put them in control of the group and would also give England the best chance of getting back into contention. Croatia have beaten Spain in Spain before, back in 1994, but they have suffered defeats in two more visits since then, losing 3-1 in 1999 and then 2-1 in 2006.

Luis Enrique’s young Spanish team took advantage of some poor England defending to claim their win over Gareth Southgate’s team but they won’t find Croatia so sloppy. Although this is a big ask for the World Cup semi-finalists, especially with a couple of key men absent from the squad.

For me, I can see Croatia scoring against a Spanish defence which didn’t look rock solid against England, but I can also see Spain grabbing at least two goals, maybe three, to claim the win here.

Spain To Win & Both Teams To Score - £10 returns £42.50
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September 11, 2018
England
VS
Switzerland
King Power Stadium
8:00 pm
England Logo
England
VS
Switzerland Logo
Switzerland
September 11, 2018
King Power Stadium
8:00 pm
Key Stats
  • England come into this game on the back of their third defeat in a row, this time losing 2-1 to Spain at Wembley in their opening Nations League game.
  • In contrast, Switzerland were outstanding in their first match in the new tournament, sweeping aside Iceland in stunning fashion thanks to a 6-0 scoreline.
  • England could be without Luke Shaw and Marcus Rashford for this game through injury, with replacements expected to be called into the squad from the England U21 team.
  • The teams have met a total of 21 times in their history, England winning 16 times, Switzerland three with five draws. Switzerland have not won in the last 10 games between the teams.
Analysis:

England’s defeat to Spain means that the Three Lions have now lost their last three games (Croatia, Belgium and Spain) and means the pressure is on Gareth Southgate, despite the general goodwill felt towards the manager following England’s performance at last summer’s World Cup.

Switzerland come into this game with a poor record against England with just three draws and seven defeats in their last ten games against the Three Lions, however they did beat Iceland in superb fashion by a 6-0 scoreline in their opening Nations League match.

With this game being a friendly, I do expect both teams to perhaps experiment a little more with their teams, particularly England and I don’t think that is too bad a thing as at times, England’s midfield has sorely lacked creativity and a spark in their last three defeats.

The game being at the King Power I also feel will help England as it will be more atmospheric and I think much more like a ‘club’ game. This will be tough and a real battle but I fancy England to grab a much needed win here by a narrow 2-1 scoreline.

England To Win & Both Teams To Score - £10 returns £42.50
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*Tips are exactly that tips (predictions) and do not guarantee success.

the Cheeky Punter
The Cheeky Punter is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has worked for a number of top bookmakers including Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. He's also written for a number of leading news outlets including the Guardian, i (newspaper) and Soccer Lens. More about him here.