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Football Betting Tips: 27th & 28th October
by David Lenton
This weekend I’ve got my usual four football betting tips for you but the split is weighted more towards Saturday as that’s where I see most value.
We’ve had a pretty good start to the season predictions wise and as we reach the end of the first quarter of the season I’m hoping we can push on in the same direction.
I think my selections this weekend might surprise a few but if you look at the prices available it’s hard to argue that value isn’t on offer.
Lets get stuck in…
Football Betting Tips: Saturday 27th October
October 27, 2018
October 27, 2018
Southampton put on a good display in the south coast derby last weekend, drawing 0-0 at Bournemouth but they have still won just one game this season so far.
Newcastle dominated the game with Brighton last weekend but a lack of goals cost them as they went down to a 0-1 defeat to drop to the bottom of the table.
The Saints have a good recent record against Newcastle, losing just one of their last eight games against the Toon Army, though that was the last game in march 2018 (3-0).
The teams have met 96 times in total, each team has amassed 37 victories in that time with the remaining 22 games finishing as draws.
Two teams that are in desperate need of a positive result meet at St Mary’s at the weekend and for both Mark Hughes and Rafa Benitez, this is a game that they will both feel they could end up with three points following the completion of 90 minutes.
I have to be honest and say that Southampton are playing very much as I expected them to this season, which is essentially not very well and they are struggling to win games. Newcastle are in a similar boat although I think they have had a much more difficult opening eight games or so of the season compared to Mark Hughes’ men.
As such, while I think Southampton’s position does reflect where they are in the Premier League this season, I think Newcastle’s position may be slightly false as I think tactically at least, they are certainly a match for Southampton, if not better.
With that in mind I am going to back the Toon Army to make this long haul south and come away with a decent performance and a draw to take back with them on the journey home.
Brighton come into this game with a huge confidence boost following their first away win in a long time at Newcastle last weekend. They are now mid-table.
Wolves were disappointing in their 0-2 home loss to Watford last weekend, but the result still leaves Nuno Espirito Santo’s team comfortably in mid-table.
These two teams have never met in the Premier League and their last two matches back in Oct 2016 and April 2017 both finished in wins for Brighton (1-0 and 2-0).
The teams have only met 30 times in their histories, with Wolves winning just six games, Brighton winning 14 and 10 matches have finished as a draw.
Brighton have good home form in the Premier League, especially against teams outside the Premier League elite, but they face a Wolves side who are working hard to break into that elite and who have started their first Premier League campaign for several years in great form.
The visitors investment in players, notably from Portugal, seems to have paid dividend as they have produced some excellent results, drawing with both Manchester clubs and picking up a number of useful victories, both at home and also on the road.
Brighton though have also beaten Manchester United at home and pushed other teams hard on the road (notably Liverpool and Man City). So this won’t be a walk in the park for either team and I do expect the game to be in the balance going into the latter stages of the game.
That said, I think Wolves do possess that extra touch of quality in their team, notably in midfield and in attack and I think that may well be the key difference between the teams, hence I am backing Wolves to steal the win here.
Leicester were humbled 3-1 by Arsenal on Monday night a result which leaves them 11th in the Premier League table, winning four and losing five of their nine games.
West Ham put on another good performance but once again came out on the wrong end of a 1-0 defeat to Spurs last weekend, which will have disappointed home fans.
The Foxes have lost just one of the last eight against West Ham, but that did come in the previous game between the teams (a 2-0 home defeat in May 2018).
West Ham have amassed the most wins in the fixture, with 52 wins compared to Leicester City’s 47. A total of 22 games out of the 121 played have finished as a draw.
This is a tricky game to call and with West Ham’s record against Leicester of late, you’d expect this to be a home win all day long. However, Leicester have been suffering form a little inconsistency of late and in truth, so the same can be said about West Ham, who beat Manchester United at home but then lost away at Brighton recently.
Leicester away is therefore a real test for the Hammers and while I think Manuel Pellegrino is doing a fine job for the club, I am concerned that they seem to be very reliant on striker Marko Arnautovic both for their goals and their inspiration.
Leicester I feel have the defensive players in order to nullify Arnautovic and I think that opens up this game for Leicester’s speedier and more energetic players to get at the West Ham defence, which while improved of late, is still not one of the quickest in the Premier League.
This should be a cracking game on Saturday night, but I do feel that the odds just favour a Leicester City home win.
Manchester United were unlucky to only draw their game with Chelsea last weekend due to a late equaliser. Anthony Martial in particular was in great form in the 2-2 draw.
Everton survived a scare against Palace last weekend, the visitors missing a penalty before two late goals handed Everton a win to leave them 8th in the table on 15 points.
United have an excellent record against Everton, their last defeat coming over three years ago when Everton won 3-0 at home in the Premier League in October 2015.
This will be the 200th match between the teams. United have won 87 compared to Everton’s 69 victories while 43 of the previous 199 games have been drawn.
It’s self-evident that Manchester United’s disappointing start to the season has heaped the pressure on the players and manager Jose Mourinho, but the Special One will be hoping that some of the better quality displays of late are a sign that the second quarter of the season will be considerably better than the first.
Everton though will not prove to be a pushover. The Toffees have been a little inconsistent this season, dropping points when perhaps they shouldn’t, but they have some very clever footballers and in Theo Walcott, a striker whose pace can worry any team at any level.
United’s success seems to hinge on Jose Mourinho finding the right blend in attack and it doesn’t seem to have happened as yet, though Romelu Lukaku, formerly of Everton, has been their most impressive and freescoring striker.
That said, as much as United have dominated this fixture in recent years with five wins in the last seven games (2 draws), I think Everton are stubborn and awkward enough to spring a surprise here and perhaps take a point from the game.
David 'the Cheeky Punter' Lenton is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has also worked for a number of top bookmakers including Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. With such a long time spent dedicated to the gambling industry no one is better placed when it comes to advising punters. Follow on Twitter @thecheekypunter