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Football Betting Tips: 29th & 30th September
by the Cheeky Punter
I don’t want to say too much about last weekend’s tips other than to say I was really disappointed with how things turned out.
I’m going to try and make things a little simpler this weekend and give myself wider margins for success by perhaps not being so specific on trickier games. We’ve still had a decent season so far though so I won’t lose heart.
This weekend is a massive one in the Premier League as Man Utd face a tricky trip to West Ham, Arsenal take on Watford, Man City face Brighton and then on Saturday evening there is a huge game at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea take on Liverpool.
Here are my tips and predictions for this weekends football.
Football Betting Tips: Saturday 29th September
September 29, 2018
September 29, 2018
West Ham’s 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea saw them move to 17th in the table last weekend. They have now lost just one of their last four games.
Man Utd’s 1-1 draw at home to Wolves mean Utd are unbeaten in their last four games. They have won two of their three on the road this season.
West Ham have won just one of the last 18 matches between the teams a 3-2 win in the Premier League at Upton Park at the end of the 2015/16 season.
The teams have met 139 times previously, Man Utd winning 65 games to West Ham’s 43 wins, while 31 of the matches have finished all-square.
Both these teams were held at home last weekend and while West Ham will be happy with a point from their game with Chelsea, United fans won’t be pleased at the Red Devils picking up just a single point from their home game with Wolves. A game which saw United on the back foot for most of the match.
Jose Mourinho has intimated it will be a difficult season for United and that could well be the case here against a West Ham side that sorely missed Marko Arnautovic against Chelsea and the Hammers will no doubt be hoping the Austrian is fit and back to lead the line against United at the weekend.
While Paul Pogba’s early season form has been under scrutiny a number of top players for United are not performing, Alexis Sanchez for one, and it is this which is seemingly causing United fans the most angst, perhaps more so than their relatively poor start to the season.
United have a solid record against West Ham in terms of not being beaten, but I think the Hammers have the bit between their teeth now and at home, I am backing them to get a point against United, and they could even challenge for all three points if Arnautovic is back and fully fit.
Newcastle’s 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace ended a run of four defeats in a row for the Toon Army. It was their second 0-0 away draw of the season so far.
Leicester’s 3-1 win over Huddersfield ended a run of two losing matches for the Foxes and moved them to 9th in the table. Newcastle in comparison lie 18th.
Although they beat Newcastle at the King Power Stadium last season, Newcastle had lost all of the previous five games between the teams before that victory.
Newcastle hold the edge in the historical meetings between the teams with 52 wins, Leicester winning 43 times and 27 games have finished as a draw.
Both these teams ended losing streaks at the weekend, Leicester with a fine win over Huddersfield and Newcastle with a battling point away to Crystal Palace. That point, while still keeping Newcastle in the drop zone, will certainly be a positive for Rafa Benitez men heading into this game.
While not as tough as three home games Newcastle have played this season (Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City), Leicester will provide a stern test for the home side and I think that the Foxes match up very well against this Newcastle team as I think their strengths really can expose the weaknesses in the Newcastle line up.
The other issue going in Leicester’s favour is that Newcastle seldom look like scoring a goal and if they go a goal behind, then I think they will really struggle to get back into the game, which will give Leicester’s pacy attackers every opportunity to increase any lead they may hold.
As such, I am backing this one to be a decent win for the Foxes as Newcastle’s struggles continue at home.
Chelsea’s 100% winning record came to an end last weekend as they drew 0-0 away to West Ham. That moved Chelsea off the top of the table and down to third.
Liverpool maintained their 100% start with a 3-0 win over Southampton at Anfield making it six wins from six. They also moved top of the table with that victory.
Chelsea’s 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge in May was their first win over Liverpool in the Premier League since November 2015. Five of the last 9 games between the teams have been draws.
Liverpool have the better of the rivalry historically with 77 wins to Chelsea’s 42, while 40 games between the two teams have finished in draws.
Liverpool’s title credentials are going to be sorely tested over the next two weekends’ with Chelsea away followed by Manchester City at home next week and after those two games, we will know a lot more about exactly where Jurgen Klopp’s team stand in the pecking order in the Premier League.
The Reds record at Stamford Bridge isn’t great, but they have earned several draws there in the past, but they did lose 1-0 on their last visit in May, Olivier Giroud’s headed goal the difference between the two teams. That followed a 1-1 draw at Anfield earlier in the season.
Chelsea were somewhat lacklustre last weekend away to West Ham but they do look very strong at home, but it should be remembered that they only just beat Arsenal 3-2 earlier in the season and looked weak defensively in that game and that is something Liverpool will want to capitalise on.
This should be a huge clash and one of the best games of the season so far, I can see Eden Hazard grabbing a goal for Chelsea, but Liverpool striking back to earn a draw as the most likely scenario. However I was very close to backing a win for the visitors here instead.
This weekend’s clash between the teams will be the first in the top flight of English football since 1962.
Cardiff have a shocking recent record vs Burnley, winning just one of the last 19 between the two teams.
Nine of the last 12 games between the teams have finished in draws including four of the five most recent match ups between the teams.
Burnley’s win last weekend moved them to 16th in the table, while Cardiff’s defeat to Manchester City moved them down to 19th place in the table.
It is perhaps no surprise that I have gone for the draw in this game, given the number of times that this match has finished that way in recent matches between the teams, but I think there is a lot more pointing to the draw than simply historical meetings.
Cardiff’s home form isn’t bad in terms of performance and they have given Arsenal a real game, despite receiving a thumping from Man City last week. Burnley are no Man City so Cardiff will feel they have a chance here against Sean Dyche’s team.
However, Burnley bounced back to winning form superbly with a 4-0 win over Bournemouth at the weekend and I think that will give them a huge boost of confidence after a rocky start to the season and they will want to carry that into this game, which they will also feel is very winnable.
With neither team likely to serve up plenty of goals, I can see this being a tight and edgy affair and I think Neil Warnock and Sean Dyche will both want the three points but would also settle for a point and that is precisely how I see this game finishing as either a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
The Cheeky Punter is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has worked for a number of top bookmakers including Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. He's also written for a number of leading news outlets including the Guardian, i (newspaper) and Soccer Lens. More about him here.