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Football Tips: Monday 15th & Tuesday 16th October
by David Lenton
We have another round of football predictions last time out, £10 stakes we up +£17.00, and I’m back with more selections for the Nations League to try to keep this epic run going.
There’s still plenty of home nation representation in this group of games including England’s daunting trip to Spain, Wales vs Republic or Ireland and Northern Ireland v Bosnia and Herzegovina in Sarajevo.
Add to that the mouth-watering clash in Paris between World Champions France and Germany, with the French looking strong in League A Group 1, and it promises to be an exciting couple of days of action.
Football Betting Tips: Friday 12th October
October 15, 2018
October 15, 2018
England’s 0-0 draw with Croatia on Friday keeps them in second spot on goal difference in front of Croatia but still five points adrift of Spain.
Spain recently beat England 2-1 at Wembley with goals from Saul Niguez and Rodrigo cancelling out Marcus Rashford’s opener for England.
Spain are strong favourites not just to win this game and League A Group D, but also the entire Nations League, which underlines the tough task facing England in Seville.
The teams have played 26 times with just three draws in that time. England have won 13 times to Spain’s 10 victories. Spain have won 5 of the last 7 games between the two.
If England are to keep their chances of winning the group alive, they need to beat Spain on Monday, but the chances of that are slim given the relative form of both teams and the fact that Spain have an excellent record against England on home soil in recent times.
In the game between the two teams last month, Spain earned the win but England did waste a number of opportunities to level the game. However, at home Spain have already thumped Croatia 6-0 and that will be a strong warning to England that Luis Enrique’s team are a real threat, especially in Seville where their record is second-to-none.
England wastefulness in front of goal continued against Croatia on Friday where Marcus Rashford in particular, was guilty of wasting two gilt-edged chances. They’ll need to take the few chances they create in Spain to have any chance here, although I can see them finding the net.
However, for me, Spain are the class act team in this group and I expect them to confirm their participation in the final stages of the tournament with a win here, probably by a similar scoreline to the 2-1 victory they earned over England last month.
Spain to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £40.00
Northern Ireland dropped to the foot of Group B after their 1-0 defeat to Austria in Vienna on Friday, thanks to a goal from Marko Arnautovic.
Bosnia & Herzegovina defeated Northern Ireland 2-1 when the teams met in Belfast.. Duljevic and Saric scoring for Robert Prosinecki’s men.
Northern Ireland bounced back to form with a 3-0 win over Israel just three days after that loss but this is a much more difficult task following on from their trip to Vienna on Friday.
The victory for Bosnia and Herzegovina in Belfast is the sole meeting between the two teams in their histories.
Another battling performance in Austria on Friday night wasn’t enough to keep Northern Ireland from going down to defeat and they now face the prospect of being relegated from League B unless they can pick up something from a tricky trip to Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In the game between the two sides last month, Bosnia were perhaps fortunate to win that game in Belfast, but they are a different team on home soil and the Irish will be right up against it, with the likes of Edin Dzeko fronting what is a well organised and disciplined team.
The home form of Bosnia & Herzegovina is generally good and while Northern Ireland have put in some strong performances away from home of late, they have failed to turn those performances into more positive results and that is an issue that I think will haunt them here.
I find it difficult to see how the rather toothless Northern Irish attack is going to break down Bosnia’s defence at home and I can see the home side grabbing the one or two goals they are going to need in order to claim their third victory in the group phase.
Bosnia & Herzegovina to win to nil - £10 returns £23.00
France lead the group, a point ahead of the Netherlands with Germany at the foot of the table with just one point from their two games so far.
The teams battled out a 0-0 draw in Germany in the first game, the home side probably had the better of that but failed to take their chances.
France are now unbeaten against Germany in their last four games, winning two and drawing two.
Across history, the teams have met a total of 30 times, France have the majority of wins with 13, compared to just 10 for Germany while seven games have finished in draws.
Germany’s shock capitulation against Holland in Amsterdam, where the Germans were beaten 3-0 in a game where the Dutch could well have had several more goals, seems to suggest that their World Cup performance last summer was more than simply a one-off.
The lack of cohesion in the team, added to how easily the Dutch carved them apart on the counter attack and when they pressed players on the ball, means Joachim Low has serious concerns heading into the second set of fixtures, starting with this game away to France.
France have no such worries and they top the group by a point, but that win for the Dutch means that the pressure is on the French to get a strong result here and they hardly warmed up for this game in style, relying on two late goals from Kylian Mbappe to earn a 2-2 draw at home to Iceland.
That said, the French do tend to raise their game when better opposition comes to play and I feel they are certainly a better side individually and collectively than the Germans at the moment, who look woeful to be perfectly honest. As such, I think the obvious bet here is simply to take France to win the game.
A 0-0 draw between the Republic and Denmark on Saturday means the Dane’s top the group on four points ahead of Wales on three and Ireland have just the one point.
Wales thumped Ireland 4-1 in Cardiff in the opening game in the group, Lawrence, Bale, Ramsey and Roberts scoring the goals in the opening 55 minutes of the game.
That result was Wales first win over the Republic of Ireland since a friendly back in February 1992 when a goal from Mark Pembridge handed the Welsh the win.
The teams now have a very even record, with both teams winning six of the 16 matches they have played meaning the other four games have ended in draws.
Wales absolutely thumped the Republic in Cardiff last month, but Martin O’Neill’s men showed their character with a battling draw against a superior Danish side at the weekend, albeit you felt that the game would have been the Danes had Christian Eriksen been fit to play.
That point was the Republic’s first of the tournament and means Denmark take a point lead into the second set of fixtures. Wales therefore need at least a point, ideally more, to ensure that their game against Denmark in November is the potential group decider, though a win for Ireland here would put them in contention too.
For me, Wales biggest problem is the fitness of Gareth Bale, which is always questionable and the Real Madrid man sat out Wales thumping at the hands of Spain last week. Ryan Giggs will certainly want him to play in this one and if he is anywhere near fit, he will likely start, although I remain sceptical of that actually happening.
How big is Bale’s influence here? Fully fit and flying, I’d have backed Wales for the win, without him or with him not fit, I think the best the Welsh can hope for is a draw and in truth, they may well be hanging on for that. A lack of goals for both teams is the other reason why I feel this one will finish all square after 90 minutes.
David 'the Cheeky Punter' Lenton is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has also worked for a number of top bookmakers including Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. With such a long time spent dedicated to the gambling industry no one is better placed when it comes to advising punters. Follow on Twitter @thecheekypunter