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Football Tips: Saturday 28th September

Premier League TipsAfter narrowly missing out on my bets on Saturday, especially the Leicester v Tottenham match, I was delighted to see both my tips come in on Sunday which meant another profitable weekend with £46.50 in profit recorded across the weekend.

This weekend we have nine games on Saturday and Sunday with just the one game on Monday Night, Man Utd v Arsenal, but unusually I’ve gone for four Saturday selections this time around.

I feel they offer the best value.

Football Tips: Saturday 28th September

September 28, 2019
Aston Villa
VS
Burnley
Villa Park
3:00 pm
Aston Villa Logo
Aston Villa
VS
Burnley Logo
Burnley
September 28, 2019
Villa Park
3:00 pm
Key Stats
  • Villa have lost an EPL high of four of their six games this season.
  • Burnley have lost just two, winning two and drawing the other two.
  • Burnley have won just 2 of the last 7 between the teams, Villa winning 3 (2 draws).
  • Burnley have picked up 2 draws on the road. Villa have drawn once at home.
Analysis:

I have to be honest and say that I have been a little disappointed with Aston Villa since they returned to the Premier League. The only game I felt they really acquitted themselves well was the win over Everton and away from home, although they were unlucky at Palace, I feel they have looked somewhat naïve and a little overawed at times. Last weekend’s defeat to Arsenal, when they led 2-1 against 10-men and still lost the game, being a case in point.

In contrast, I can see Burnley are returning to the team that was so difficult to beat either at home or away in the Premier League a couple of seasons ago. Sean Dyche’s team seem to have renewed focus this year and apart from the defeat to Liverpool apart, they have been in every game that they have played so far to the end.

I just think Burnley’s pragmatism is going to be a tough one for Villa to overcome even on home soil. Dyche seems to be more than capable of sending out his team to get a result against this type of opposition and that is precisely what I can see happening here. I don’t think Burnley will do quite enough to get the win, but I do feel they will be good value for a point.

Draw - £10 returns £34.00
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September 28, 2019
Bournemouth
VS
West Ham
Vitality Stadium
3:00 pm
Bournemouth Logo
Bournemouth
VS
West Ham Logo
West Ham
September 28, 2019
Vitality Stadium
3:00 pm
Key Stats
  • In Bournemouth’s six games, both teams have scored at least once.
  • Both teams have scored just twice in games featuring West Ham this season.
  • The Hammers are 5th in the table, with Bournemouth one spot and one point below them.
  • West Ham are unbeaten in 5 heading into this game, Bournemouth winning their last 2.
Analysis:

Two sides whose recent form has been much more impressive with Bournemouth winning their last two games against Everton and Southampton by impressive 3-1 scorelines and West Ham now unbeaten in five games since their opening day mauling at the hands of Manchester City.

I have been impressed with both these teams in different ways. Bournemouth were very bright and clinical in front of goal against Everton and Southampton and when they play like that, they are a hard team to beat, as Manchester City have found out already this season.

However, in beating Man Utd 2-0 at the weekend, West Ham didn’t really need to get into top gear. They controlled the game pretty well after taking the lead and ran out deserved winners in the end, which is a sign of their growing maturity.

I can’t see the bubble bursting with defeat for either of these times any time soon and I feel both will grab a single goal in what will likely be a 1-1 draw.

Draw & both teams to score - £10 returns £44.00
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September 28, 2019
Wolverhampton Wanderers
VS
Watford
Molineux
3:00 pm
Wolverhampton Wanderers Logo
Wolverhampton Wanderers
VS
Watford Logo
Watford
September 28, 2019
Molineux
3:00 pm
Key Stats
  • Watford have won two of the last three between the teams.
  • Watford have picked up just one point from three games away from home.
  • Wolves have picked up two points from three games at home.
  • Between them, the teams have drawn six games out of 12 played this season.
Analysis:

It is fair to say that both these teams, the bottom two in the Premier League, have had distinctly underwhelming seasons so far and while both will still probably feel confident of avoiding relegation at the end of the season, they will also be aware that they need a win sooner rather than later.

Of the two, I feel Wolves are the most likely to get this. They have drawn four of their six games, they are at home and I feel they are playing with more confidence than Watford at the moment, who were mauled by Manchester City last week in an embarrassing 8-0 defeat.

The Hornets can point to beating Wolves twice last season, but I feel this game is going to be a very tough one for them against a Wolves side that know a win here could really kick start their season in just the nick of time.

I can see Watford taking advantage of a leaky Wolves defence to score a goal, but I feel Wolves firepower should be enough for them to take the three points from the game.

Wolves to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £43.00
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September 28, 2019
Everton
VS
Man City
Goodison Park
5:30 pm
Everton Logo
Everton
VS
Man City Logo
Man City
September 28, 2019
Goodison Park
5:30 pm
Key Stats
  • City have won all of the last three matches between the teams by 2 clear goals.
  • Everton have won two and lost one of their three home games.
  • Manchester City have scored in both halves in five of their six games.
  • All six of Manchester City’s games this season have seen over 3.5 goals scored.
Analysis:

Manchester City’s record at Goodison Park is not the best over the years, but the Citizens have won the last three games between the teams and done so relatively easily. Given they come into this game on the back of a resounding 8-0 win over Watford, while Everton were losing 2-0 at home to Sheffield United, the impetus is all with the visitors here.

It’s hard to make something of Everton’s season. There’s been positive glimpses of something developing, especially in the win over Wolves, but the team looks extremely poor defensively and if Sheffield United can negate their attacking threat and score twice at Goodison Park, City should be able to run riot.

City have been a guarantee of goals this season in the league with at least four or more goals scored in every game that they have played and I think that makes this a rather simple bet for me here as I am going with the Over 3.5 goals market for hopefully a nice better than double your money return.

Over 3.5 Goals - £10 returns £22.00
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Author: David Lenton

David Lenton
David 'the Cheeky Punter' Lenton is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has also worked for a number of top bookmakers including Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. With such a long time spent dedicated to the gambling industry no one is better placed when it comes to advising punters. Follow on Twitter @thecheekypunter