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International Football Tips: 15th, 16th & 17th Nov

This week is the final International week of what has been a relatively successful year for the English men’s team. Culminating in a 3-2 win over Spain last time out.

For the other home nations though it has been a more difficult year with the likes of Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland all very much in the process of rebuilding.

This international break though sees the final round of Nations League games taking place, after which we will know which teams will be promoted and which will be relegated for the next tournament.

I haven’t really bought into the idea of the tournament yet but it’s a excuse for more football tips and analysis.

Football Betting Tips: Thursday 15th November

November 15, 2018
Croatia
VS
Spain
Stadion Maksimir
7:45 pm
Croatia Logo
Croatia
VS
Spain Logo
Spain
November 15, 2018
Stadion Maksimir
7:45 pm
Key Stats
  • Spain are top of Group 4 in League A with six points. A win here would confirm them as winners of the group.
  • Croatia could still win the group if they can win against Spain and then beat England at Wembley on Sunday.
  • If the game finishes in a draw, England could win the group by beating Croatia on Sunday, but could also be relegated if Croatia beat them at Wembley.
  • The first game between the teams in Spain finished in a comprehensive 6-0 win for Spain over the World Cup semi-finalists.
Analysis:

This is a huge game in the context of England’s group, with the English needing a draw or a Croatian win in order to stand any chance of winning the group. Spain simply need to beat Croatia in order to ensure they finish top of Group 4.

Last time out the Spanish absolutely humiliated the World Cup Finalists by winning 6-0 on home soil, in a game that Croatian fans will want to forget and forget quickly. However, Spain showed real defensive frailties in their 3-2 home loss to England, a result which has thrown this group wide open.

It is also worth noting that if Croatia can win this game and then beat England on Sunday, they would top the group, so all teams could still win the group, while both England and Croatia could be relegated depending on how things turn out. For me though, I think on home soil, Croatia can cause Spain enough problems to at least emerge with a point.

Draw - £10 returns £34.00
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Nations League Tips: Friday 16th November

November 16, 2018
Netherlands
VS
France
Stadion Feijenoord
7:45 pm
Netherlands Logo
Netherlands
VS
France Logo
France
November 16, 2018
Stadion Feijenoord
7:45 pm
Key Stats
  • France are top of Group A with 7 points, four ahead of the Netherlands, though the Dutch have played one fewer game than the World Cup winners.
  • The Netherlands lie in second spot in Group 1 in League A with three points after two games, two ahead of Germany who have also played one game more.
  • In order to have a chance of winning the group, the Netherlands must beat France in this game. A draw or win for France confirms them as group winners.
  • The last match between the two sides finished in a 2-1 victory for France in Paris thanks to goals from Mbappe and Giroud. Babel scoring for the Netherlands.
Analysis:

A win or draw for France will be enough to put them into the playoff phase of the competition, but they face a tricky trip to the Netherlands, against a team that gave them a real test back in Paris in September.

The Dutch have endured a miserable few years after missing out on both Euro 2016 and the World Cup last summer, but the team have looked stronger in this tournament, comprehensively beating Germany in their last game, following on from that narrow loss to the French.

In truth, France haven’t hit the heights of their World Cup performance in the summer and the Dutch will feel that they have a realistic chance of springing a surprise in this game. However, despite that, the Dutch do still look a little naïve at times, especially in midfield and I think this will ultimately prove to be the factor that hands France the point they need in order to win the group.

Draw - £10 returns £35.00
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November 16, 2018
Wales
VS
Denmark
Cardiff City Stadium
7:45 pm
Wales Logo
Wales
VS
Denmark Logo
Denmark
November 16, 2018
Cardiff City Stadium
7:45 pm
Key Stats
  • Wales are safe from relegation but if Denmark lose their final two games, they would be relegated in place of the Republic of Ireland.
  • Denmark lie 2nd and a draw for them would leave them needing a win vs Ireland to win the group. If they beat Wales, they win the group.
  • Wales are top of Group 4 in League B and a win here would mean they gain promotion to League A.
  • The last game between the two teams took place in Aarhus in September and resulted in a 2-0 win for Denmark. Tottenham’s Christian Eriksen scoring both goals.
Analysis:

It’s fair to say that Denmark have been the better team in Group 4 in League B so far, but that 0-0 draw in Ireland last time out does make things more difficult for them. They are second in the group having played a game less than Wales and are unbeaten, but if they lose this game tonight, they will not be able to top the group.

There is, therefore, a massive incentive for Wales to get the win here and see themselves promoted up to Group A and the good news for Wales is that key men such as Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey, should both be fit in what is going to be a very big game on Friday night.

The fact this game is taking place at the smaller Cardiff City Stadium will also help the Welsh fans create a claustrophobic atmosphere and in the past that has worked well for the team. So much so, that even with Denmark being the better side in general, I think this Wales team will be inspired to earn the win they need to top the group and gain promotion.

Wales to win - £10 returns £26.30
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International Football Tips: Saturday 17th September

November 17, 2018
Italy
VS
Portugal
San Siro
7:45 pm
Italy Logo
Italy
VS
Portugal Logo
Portugal
November 17, 2018
San Siro
7:45 pm
Key Stats
  • Italy lie second in Group 3 of League A with four points in total, they must win this game to stand any chance of finishing top of the group.
  • Portugal are top of Group 3, a win over Italy (or over Poland in their final game) or a draw with Italy will be enough for them to win the group.
  • Italy are however safe from relegation, as even if Poland win their final game with Portugal to draw level on points, Italy have a better head to head record over the Poles.
  • The teams met at the Stadium of Light in Lisbon back in September and Portugal won that game 1-0 thanks to Andre Silva’s strike.
Analysis:

I’ve been quite surprised with how well Portugal have dominated this group and the fact that they need just a point from this game to secure top spot shows that even without Ronaldo, they are still a tough team to get a positive result against.

Italy are in something of a rebuilding program under Roberto Mancini and he has blended in some younger players alongside more experienced players in recent games, with somewhat mixed success, however he will know that only a victory will give them any chance of winning the group.

I can’t see there being too many goals in this game, both sides strongest suit is most certainly in defence and their midfield are set up more to protect what they have, than to attack the opposition. As such, I see this as a similar game to the one in Lisbon which was settled by a single goal and tonight, with home advantage, I feel it will be the Italians that will grab it.

Italy to win - £10 returns £22.50
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*Tips are exactly that tips (predictions) and do not guarantee success.

the Cheeky Punter
The Cheeky Punter is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has worked for a number of top bookmakers including Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. He's also written for a number of leading news outlets including the Guardian, i (newspaper) and Soccer Lens. More about him here.