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International Football Tips: Saturday 7th September 2019
by David Lenton
Well, we made another profit last weekend thanks to Watford and Newcastle battling out a score draw at St James’ Park, but it could have been so much more had things gone our way in the other three games.
The fact I was so close to getting things bang on the money in each one is scant consolation of course, but at least it shows that the analysis is paying dividends and we are getting very close to the mark, if not bang on, with the tips so far.
So it may have only been a small profit last weekend of £6 for £10 stakes, but it could have been so much more and of course, that adds to the healthy profit from the week before to ensure that we are still taking from the bookies, which is the way we like it.
This week is an international week and as such we are going to focus on the games taking place on Saturday, which includes England’s game with Bulgaria at Wembley. Here’s my tips for these games.
Football Tips: Saturday 7th September
September 7, 2019
Pristina City Stadium
September 7, 2019
Pristina City Stadium
Kosovo have played 3 games. They lie third, unbeaten, on five points.
The Czech Republic are second in Group A winning both their last 2 games.
The two teams have never met previously.
Kosovo have gone 13 games unbeaten, since losing to Iceland in October 2017.
The bookmakers seem to think the Czech Republic are going to win this game relatively easily but a quick look at Kosovo’s recent form suggests that the Czech’s could be in for a very tough afternoon and I don’t think an away win is on the cards at all.
The Czechs were much more impressive in their last two games after their heavy defeat to England, but Kosovo are unbeaten in 13 games stretching back to October 2017 and in that run they have avoided defeat to the likes of Albania, Denmark, Bulgaria and Montenegro.
With this game being played in Kosovo too, I feel that the home side will be brimming with confidence against a Czech side that do not seem to travel particularly well. That said, I feel the quality the Czech’s have mean that they will grab a goal here and I think that should be enough for them to emerge with a point from the game.
England are top of Group A after winning both their games, scoring 5 goals in each.
Bulgaria are 4th, having played 4 games but picking up just 2 points.
In all their games with England, Bulgaria have scored 2 goals, 31 years apart.
The teams have met 10 times in total, England winning 6 with 4 draws.
Having thumped the Czech Republic 5-0 and then Montenegro 5-1 on the road, Gareth Southgate’s England made an excellent start to their Euro 2020 qualifying campaign and they still top Group A despite playing a game or two less than the other teams in the group.
Bulgaria have picked up just two draws at home to Montenegro and away to Kosovo, who then beat them in Sofia on Matchday four. Krasimir Balakov’s side are certainly not anywhere near the quality of the great Bulgarian team he as a part of in the 1990s that featured the likes of Stoichkov, Lechkov and Kostadinov.
England though come into this game after a somewhat disappointing summer where they were well beaten by the Netherlands and then fortunate to beat Switzerland on penalties to finish third in the Nations Cup and they will want to bounce back here with a win and that is what I can see them doing. I fancy England to win this one 4-0 and as such, the over 3.5 goals market looks to be the best value bet.
France are top of Group H, though only on goal difference from Turkey and Iceland.
Albania have picked up six points from four games to lie fourth in the table.
Albania have beaten France once before, a 1-0 win in June 2015 in Tirana.
At Euro 2016, France beat Albania 2-0 thanks to late goals from Griezmann and Payet.
A shock defeat on Matchday 3 away to Turkey has thrown the top of Group H wide open with France, Turkey and Iceland all sharing nine points from four games, with three wins and one defeat each. The French now face a tricky home tie with Albania, a team that they have had some problems with in the past.
Albania beat France sensationally in June 2015 and a year later, they had held the French to 0-0 in Paris during Euro 2016, only to conceded two very late goals to hand the home side an emotional late victory.
With Kylian Mbappe and Paul Pogba both absent, I can see France struggling to break through a well marshalled Albanian defence and as such, while I do feel the French will win, I can’t see them racking up a huge scoreline, which is why I feel the offer on the Under 2.5 Goals market, which has been the case in each of the last three matches between these two teams, is a smart move.
Serbia lie third in Group B with four points from three games.
Portugal have amassed two points from their two games.
The teams drew 1-1 in Lisbon back in March in their first clash in the group.
The teams have met five times in total, Portugal winning two with three draws.
Serbia may have earned a point on the road against Portugal back in March, but they have never managed to beat their opponents this weekend in any of five previous attempts and they face a Portugal side coming into this game as the first ever Nations League Champions after their victories over Switzerland and the Netherlands on home soil this past summer.
Group B is somewhat delicately poised with the Ukraine currently leading the group comfortably. A defeat for either team here could leave them trailing behind the Ukrainians, whereas a win could move them right into contention to win the group.
Both sides need the points here to stand a realistic chance of winning the group and I think as a result, we could see a tight, defensive game, which both teams are arguably best cut out for. However, Portugal have Cristiano Ronaldo and I think his brilliance will be the difference between the teams. I can see both team’s scoring here, but I do feel Portugal will just about sneak the win, even if the bookies feel the draw is the smart bet.
Portugal to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £50.00
David 'the Cheeky Punter' Lenton is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has also worked for a number of top bookmakers including Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. With such a long time spent dedicated to the gambling industry no one is better placed when it comes to advising punters. Follow on Twitter @thecheekypunter