Premier League Final Day Tips – 22nd May

Leeds United know that given their goal difference is 20 worse than Burnley, they have to better Burnley’s result at home to Newcastle in order to stand any chance of staying up. They face a Brentford side that are in very good form at the moment with the fourth best points total over the last eight games of all Premier League teams.

Part of that improvement has been the influence of Christian Eriksen whose undeniable quality has added a level of depth and skill to the Brentford attack that just was not there previously. Eriksen is only on a short-term deal though and it is likely that he will move on after this game.

Brentford are safe and could finish in the top half of the table if results were to go their way in other games. That would be a remarkable performance from Thomas Frank’s team in their first season in the Premier League. The pressure is therefore off the home side.

For Leeds though, this is a game where their fans will have one ear on events at Turf Moor and I can see a nervy and edgy afternoon in store, but Leeds poor form and tendency to concede goals makes me worry that they may come up short here, even if they do score a goal.

Both these teams have enjoyed much better seasons than they would have expected so this should be a good chance for both teams to end the season on a high. Brighton’s form over the last eight games is much better than West Ham’s, but the Londoners have picked up seven out of the last nine points available in their EPL games.

That means that if West Ham can win and Man Utd lose or draw away to Crystal Palace, then the Hammers would qualify for the Europa League ahead of Man Utd and the Red Devils would take the Europa Conference League place that is up for grabs.

Brighton could finish as high as 8th in the table if results were to go their way this weekend and that would be a massive achievement for Graham Potter and his team, especially with a number of people, myself including, tipping them to struggle this season.

However, Brighton’s home for is the fourth worst in the Premier League this season and West Ham seem to have found a bit of form just in time. They know they have a chance to have another crack at the Europa League if they can win here and Palace can hold or beat Man Utd, so I expect a big performance from the Hammers here and perhaps a 2-1 victory to break the run of drawn games.

Both these teams have nothing more to play for this season other than pride, but the reason I have gone for this game is that games involving the two of late have generally seen both teams score, in fact no team in the Premier League has been involved in more games with both teams finding the net than Leicester.

Leicester have 25 games where both teams have scored and Southampton have 22, the same as Man Utd and just one behind West Ham with 23. That does suggest to me that we can expect both teams to find the net here.

As such, that leaves just picking the right bet to pair with that and looking at the form of both teams, it looks to me like this is Leicester City’s game to win. The Foxes have picked up seven points from the last nine available, including a draw away to Chelsea in midweek and that is much better than the Saints most recent form.

Leicester have flattered to deceive at home at times this season but I think this will be a good way to finish off the season and I’m backing them to land a win here but with both teams finding the net.

Manchester City know that a win over Aston Villa will give them the Premier League title, however a draw or defeat could well see Liverpool take over at the top of the table and claim the title in front of them. So it is fair to say that the Etihad will be nervous ahead of this game.

City have won the league at home before, most famously against Queens Park Rangers over a decade ago, and they start as the massive favourites to win the game and claim the title here and in truth, there’s no statistics that you look at that suggest Aston Villa are going to cause an upset here.

The home side are dominant in almost every major category that you would care to look at here so Liverpool fans may be clutching at straws to land the result they need here, but I do think Villa will score a goal and it could be their ex-Liverpool man Philippe Coutinho who gets it.

He has a proven record of scoring goals against Manchester City, mainly for Liverpool and he did net against Manchester United for Villa earlier in the season. He’s got great odds to score at any time too, so he is my bet here.