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Premier League Football Tips: 3rd & 4th October

Author: Last Updated: September 30, 2020

Premier League TipsWe recorded another healthy profit last weekend of £25 across the four games, which means that after just three weeks of the season, we are already in profit having posted a nice similar amount last week, which cancelled out the loss we made on the opening week of the season.

So at the moment, I am £12 up on my bets after three weeks of the season so far and I am hopeful of adding to that this week as I think we have a relatively ‘punter friendly’ selection of games, although I used that phrase very much with a tongue in my cheek, as we have already seen some ‘certain’ results not happen.

As anyone who watched the Manchester City v Leicester City game last weekend can testify!

Of course, it is still early in the season, but it does make predicting things a little trickier when the top teams you expect to do well, are off their game, and some of the unexpected sides are doing so well. Confidence and momentum can be huge in football and so I have tried to take account of that with this week’s selections.

Here’s my tips for this week’s selection of four Premier League games.

Premier League Tips: Saturday 26th September

Leeds United VS Man City
03/10/2020 5:30 pm GMT

Key Stats

After losing at Anfield, Leeds have won their last two games and lie 7th in the table.
City have played two, losing one, winning one and lie 13th in the table.
The teams last played in the FA Cup in 2013, City winning 4-0.
In the EPL era, Leeds have won 7, City five with 4 draws between the teams.

Analysis

What do you make of Manchester City so far? A good first half showing against Wolves apart, they have been very ordinary and looked extremely vulnerable defensively, prompting Pep Guardiola to spend another fortune on another centre back in Benfica’s Ruben Dias.

In contrast, Leeds United have earned plaudits for their attacking style but also showed defensive resolve in landing a last gasp away win at Sheffield United last weekend, a result which moved them to a lofty 7th in the table on six points. That represents a very solid start from Bielsa’s team.

We already know Leeds can trouble the top teams, as they showed effectively against Liverpool, so I do fancy them to score against this City defence, but by the same token, I can see City’s offensive players having lots of joy against this Leeds back line too and I would be astonished if both teams do not find the net in this evening kick off.

I still feel City’s greater quality in attack will be the difference-maker here and as such, I am backing them to win this one but in truth, it could be by any scoreline from 2-1, up to 5-4.

Prediction

Man City to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £23.00
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Football Betting Tips: Sunday 27th September

Newcastle United VS Burnley
03/10/2020 8:00 pm GMT

Key Stats

After landing 4 points from their 3 games, Newcastle lie 10th in the table.
Burnley are in 18th with 0 points from their 2 games so far.
Four of the last eight games between these two teams have ended all-square.
The last three games between these teams have seen just 3 goals scored.

Analysis

Of these two teams, Newcastle impressed me the most initially, especially with the manner of their victory over West Ham on the opening round of games, but since then they were toothless against both Brighton and Tottenham and only earned a point from the latter due to a very generous penalty given to them right at the end of the game.

Burnley have lost both their matches so far, to Leicester and Southampton but have beaten Millwall in the cup. They are a tough side and like Newcastle, are more renowned for their defensive organisation and ability than they are their free-flowing attack.

Looking at both teams on paper and with the number of players missing through injury for both teams, I think this has the look of being another very tight afternoon and it would not surprise me at all if the game finished goalless.

However, I don’t want to go for that and be annoyed if the game finishes 1-1, which is another possibility, to I have opted to take the straight draw option here, which is still a good odds value bet.

Prediction

Draw - £10 returns £31.50
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Southampton VS West Brom
04/10/2020 12:00 pm GMT

Key Stats

The Saints have won one of their three games so far and lie 15th in the table.
West Brom have one point from three games and lie 17th in the table.
Southampton have a great record v WBA winning all of the last four and 5 of the last 6.
West Brom are the worst defensive team in the Premier League conceding 11.

Analysis

After a somewhat stuttering start to their campaign, including a thumping at home by Spurs, Southampton got back to their form of last season last time out with a 1-0 win at Burnley and I think they will go on to build from that positive result last week. That goal for Danny Ings may be invaluable for both the player and his team as they seek to push on after a poor start to the season.

West Brom were 3-0 up against Chelsea last weekend at half time but in the end only could pick up a point from that game which leaves them near the foot of the table. There are big worries defensively for Slaven Bilic’s team as they have conceded the most goals in the division this season, 11, having shipped at least three goals in all of their EPL games they have played.

I think Southampton are well primed to take full advantage of that here and while I can see the Baggies perhaps grabbing a goal themselves (they have netted five goals in the last two games), I think the Saints will run out 2-1 or 3-1 winners on the day.

Prediction

Southampton to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £36.00
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Monday Night Football Tips: September 28th

Man Utd VS Tottenham
04/10/2020 4:30 pm GMT

Key Stats

United have three points from two games but lie 14th in the table.
Spurs have four points from their three games to lie 8th in the table.
Son is a huge absence for Spurs through injury. This is Spurs 4th game in 8 days.
Of the last 10 between the two, United have won 5, Spurs 4 with one draw (last season).

Analysis

It is fair to say that neither of these sides have had the start to the season that they wanted. United were well beaten by Crystal Palace in their opening game and could have been by Brighton, only for some wasteful Brighton finishing and the fact the Seagulls hit the woodwork on four occasions. Even then it took a last gasp penalty, awarded by VAR after the final whistle, for United to claim the win.

Spurs though have hardly been at their best either with a defeat to Everton followed by a good win at Southampton but they missed plenty of chances against Newcastle and only leading 1-0, saw a very contentious penalty decision go against them to hand Newcastle a point.

Even so, I think Spurs are the team in better form but they have faced the prospect of four games in eight days over the past week and as such, even for a team with their resources, I feel that is far too much to ask of them.

As such, I think United have struck lucky here as if they played Spurs on a less taxing week, and if Spurs had Son fit, I would have backed the visitors so poorly have United played. However, I think the dice have fallen favourably for the home side here and I think they will land the win, although I do feel both teams will find the net.

Prediction

Man Utd to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £38.00
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*Tips are exactly that tips (predictions) and do not guarantee success.

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