Premier League Tips – 30th April & 1st May

Author: Published: April 29, 2022

Premier League TipsNo luck last weekend and we fell a little short in the week with only one of my bets coming in. We must give thanks to Kevin De Bruyne for that one otherwise it would have been a whitewash for the bookies.

Looking ahead now, we have a full set of Premier League games taking place this weekend and as is always the case as you head towards the end of the season, some of these games could be absolutely crucial in deciding who wins the league, who finishes in the Champions League or European spots and who eventually goes down.

Everton’s poor away form has seen them drop into the danger zone and they now lie behind Burnley by two points, although the Toffees do have a game in hand. However, this weekend they face Chelsea at Goodison, while Burnley take on Watford at Vicarage Road and if Everton lose and Burnley win, then Frank Lampard’s side could be in real trouble.

At the top of the table both Liverpool and Manchester City have tough away games after the Champions League semifinals in midweek. Liverpool kick off at 12.30 on Saturday against Newcastle at St James’ Park, while City are on the road away to Leeds who are unbeaten in their last five.

There’s also a crucial game in the battle for fourth in the table with Arsenal travelling to face West Ham with a huge amount at stake for the winner.

Let’s take a look now at the tips I have put together for this weekend.

Football Betting Tips: Saturday 30th April

Watford VS Burnley
30/04/2022 3:00 pm GMT

Key Stats

Burnley are 17th with 31pts from 33 games. Watford are 19th with 22 pts from 33 games.
Burnley have won three of their last five, losing just once in that run.
Watford have lost seven of their last nine, conceding 24 goals in those games.
Watford gave won just one of the last 7 against Burnley (losing four, drawing two)

Analysis

This game has gone from being a six-pointer between two teams in the relegation zone, to one which could see Burnley move five points clear of the drop zone with a win. Watford haven’t really seen a huge improvement under Roy Hodgson and in my view, they and Norwich are already certainties for relegation this season.

Burnley, in contrast, since sacking Sean Dyche have won their last two games under caretaker boss Michael Jackson. None of those games were a Thriller, but they haven’t been Bad in either of them (I’ll stop the awful Michael Jackson puns now) and given the boost in confidence they have had from them I think the visitors will be well up for this one.

Watford do have some electrifying individual players, the likes of Jay Dennis for example, but I just don’t see them as a fully unified team and I think that Burnley, with their tight defence, can take advantage of that here.

The last game between the two was a 0-0 draw, but I think that with things as they are for both teams, a draw really doesn’t do much good for either team here, and I can see Burnley perhaps stealing a late goal to clinch what could be a huge win in their battle to avoid the drop.

Prediction

Burnley to win - £10 returns £27.00
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Southampton VS Crystal Palace
30/04/2022 3:00 pm GMT

Key Stats

Southampton are 13th on 40 pts, Palace 14th on 38. Palace have a game in hand.
Both teams have won just one of their last five (drawing two, losing two)
Palace have scored 3 more and conceded 15 goals fewer than Saints this season.
Palace have won just one of the last seven, a 1-0 win at Selhurst Park in Sep 2020.

Analysis

Both these two sides are somewhat in a state of limbo, not really with so few points they are in the relegation battle, but too far behind the battle for European places, but still not quite mathematically safe in terms of their Premier League status next season.

Neither side is in great form heading into this game either and Southampton do have home advantage, but their form has been so patchy of late that it has been hard to get a handle on what kind of performance you are going to get from the team. In fairness, you can say the same thing about Palace at the moment too.

The Saints do have a good recent record against Palace, losing just one of the last seven, so that will go in their favour here, but I like the way Palace are stronger defensively and they have become a tough team to break down, even on the road.

As such, I can see this one being a tight affair with both sides pushing for it, but defences coming out on top. I see this game as either being a 0-0 draw or a 1-1 draw and so to keep my options open, I am backing the draw bet here.

Prediction

Draw - £10 returns £33.00
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Football Betting Tips: Sunday 1st May

Everton VS Chelsea
01/05/2022 2:00 pm GMT

Key Stats

Everton are 18th in the table on 29 pts, Chelsea are 3rd on 65 pts. Both on 32 games.
Everton have the 10th best home record in the EPL (W7, D2, L7).
Chelsea have the 2nd best away record in the EPL (W11, D3, L2).
Everton have won three of the last six against Chelsea, losing two and drawing one.

Analysis

Everton are now in desperate need of points as they have fallen into the relegation zone behind Burnley and while the Toffees do have a game in hand on their relegation rivals, they have a tough run in to the end of the season with games against Chelsea, Arsenal and Leicester to come.

One positive though for Everton has been their home form, which is the 10th best in the Premier League. Under Frank Lampard they have landed some big wins at home and they need another huge performance here against Lampard’s former team, a Chelsea side who probably have their sights now on the FA Cup Final in a couple of weeks.

The Toffees actually have a pretty good recent record against Chelsea, but they will be aware that Chelsea have the second best away record in the Premier League, and so this is by no means a given that the home side can pick up anything from this game.

I just feel that Everton’s need is going to be so great here that this game will be played in a cauldron like atmosphere at Goodison Park. If Everton get off to a good start and score first they will win this I feel. But if Chelsea score first, I feel they will win it. However, I am backing Everton to surprise a few and get the job done.

Prediction

Everton to win - £10 returns £50.00
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West Ham VS Arsenal
01/05/2022 4:30 pm GMT

Key Stats

West Ham are 7th (52 pts, 34 games), Arsenal lie 3rd (60pts, 33 games) in the table.
West Ham have won just two of their last eight EPL games (losing 5, drawing 1)
Arsenal have not drawn a game since a 0-0 draw with Burnley 13 games ago.
West Ham have won just one of the last 13 games with Arsenal (D3, L9)

Analysis

This London derby has big implications in the race for fourth spot in the Premier League. West Ham come into this game just a few days after their Europa League semifinal first leg game with Eintracht Frankfurt, while Arsenal have been able to rest up ahead of this game and I think that is a crucial factor here.

Neither side is in particularly great form and Arsenal have either been winning or losing games, not drawing many. A draw doesn’t do West Ham much good either as both teams will know that given their current situation, only a win in this game will do.

As such, I am expecting a relatively open game here and one that is perhaps a bit similar to the Chelsea v Arsenal game a couple of weeks back, which I correctly predicted as an Arsenal win and in truth, that is how I see this game going too.

The Gunners are in better form, more rested and have a much better recent record over West Ham than the Hammers do against them and as such, I think Arsenal will clinch a very important three points here, but with both teams finding the net.

Prediction

Arsenal to win and both teams to score - £10 returns £37.50
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*Tips are exactly that tips (predictions) and do not guarantee success.

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