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Weekend Football Tips: 15th & 16th December
by the Cheeky Punter
I’ve been somewhat unfortunate with last minute goals of late and last weekend, Matt Doherty’s last gasp winner for Wolves against Newcastle meant that I missed out on another big win and certain profit at the last once again.
To say that this was frustrating was an understatement!
However a last minute winner in the Ajax v Bayern game meant profit for my Champions League tips this week (+£51) which after a small loss in the Europa League means we’re still up £33.70 (from £10 stakes) this week so far.
I’m hoping to build on that with my football betting tips for this weekend so we can close out the week on an even bigger high!
Footie Tips: Saturday 15th December
December 15, 2018
December 15, 2018
City’s defeat at Chelsea last week was their first of the season and saw them drop to second in the Premier League table, a point behind Liverpool.
Everton were held 2-2 by Watford at home on Monday. That dropped them down to 7th in the table, with Manchester United moving above them.
Everton’s last away win came at Leicester back in October but they have played Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool away since then (drawing one and losing two).
Everton have won two, lost two and drawn three of the last seven matches between the two teams. The corresponding fixture last season ended in a 1-1 draw at the Etihad.
Everton managed to land a draw in this fixture last season, one of just two games Manchester City failed to win at home on their way to the title, but it is going to be a big ask for Marco Silva’s men to achieve something similar this time around.
City’s defeat at Chelsea last week will have primed the team ready to make a statement comeback win today and reclaim top spot in the table. After having beaten Hoffenheim in midweek too, City will feel ready to tackle the dangerous Toffees.
Everton are a vastly improved side this season, as their league position and results show and they do have some dangerous players, it is just difficult to see how they will retain enough possession in the game and do enough with it, to cause City problems.
As such, while I can see the City back line, which has looked more porous of late, conceding a goal to the Toffees, I still think the home side will run our more than comfortable winners.
Man City to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £25.00
Huddersfield lost 1-0 away to Arsenal last week, a result which left David Wagner’s men in 18th place on 10 points, two behind Burnley & Crystal Palace.
Newcastle lost 2-1 at home to Wolves last weekend, a result which left Rafa Benitez men on 13 points in 15th place, three points clear of today’s opponents.
Newcastle’s last away defeat was against Man Utd in October. They have also picked up four draw on the road (three of those 0-0) and a win over Burnley.
Huddersfield have managed just three goals in eight home games, winning just one of those games. They have lost of their last three games by just one goal.
This is a game where if you analyse the stats and performances of both the teams this season, particularly paying attention to Huddersfield’s home form and Newcastle’s away, you are going to struggle to see where any goals are going to come from.
Huddersfield have scored just three home goals this season and the player responsible for two of them, Aaron Mooy, is out injured until the New Year. Newcastle have three 0-0 draws on their record away from home, which have typically come against other relegation threatened teams.
Both sides can score goals of course, but in games like this where both sides know that a defeat could be criticial, I think the tendency is for both teams to take a more safety first approach and that is precisely what I see occurring in this game.
As such, I reckon this has 0-0 written all over it, but even if one team does score, I am backing the other to get an equaliser and the game to finish all-square regardless.
Southampton’s sole win this season came at Crystal Palace, they have picked up just 2 points from the last 18 available to lie in 19th position in the Premier League table.
Arsenal have gone 21 games unbeaten in all competitions (up to Thursday’s Europa League game). The Gunners are 5th in the Premier League with 34 points from 16 games.
Arsenal are the second top goalscorers in the Premier League with 35. Aubameyang is the joint top goalscorer in the division with Mo Salah on 10 goals.
Only Huddersfield have scored fewer goals than Southampton’s 13 and only Burnley and Fulham have conceded more than the 30 the Saints have conceded this season.
I’ve been giving Southampton heavy criticism for a while now and while I think the appointment of Ralf Hassenhutl is a positive move, I still don’t see how they are going to get themselves out of the relegation battle that they are now embroiled in.
For me, the squad is lacking in goals, drive and leadership. Defensively they are woeful at times and even if they do take a lead in a match, they seem to throw that advantage away all too easily. That is a worrying problem for Hassenhutl to have to try and sort out.
They face an Arsenal side who are in superb form, unbeaten in all competitions in 21 games going into Thursday’s Europa League game, where I expect them to make that 22. In short, the Gunners are too good, far too good, to come unstuck at St Mary’s.
I can see the Saints grabbing a goal at home against an Arsenal back line that still shows the occasional weakness, but even so, I expect Arsenal to run out handsome winners in the end.
Arsenal to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £34.00
Liverpool’s 4-0 win at Bournemouth last weekend saw them go back to the top of the table on 42 points having scored 34 goals & conceding just 6.
United’s 4-1 win over Fulham moved them into 6th place on 26 points. They have scored 28 goals in the league so far, but have also conceded 26.
United had the better of results last season between the teams, earning a 0-0 draw at Anfield, before following that with a 2-1 victory at Old Trafford in March.
Liverpool have won just one of the last ten games between the teams, a Europa League game, with their last Premier League win coming back in 2014.
I was surprised at just how poor Liverpool’s recent record is against United, with no Premier League wins over the Red Devil’s since 2014, when they were 3-0 winners at Old Trafford. United have very much held the upper hand in this fixture since then.
However, this is a very different Liverpool team and also a very different United team. Liverpool are much stronger than they have been in the past as their unbeaten record in the league shows. United have been much weaker, as their worrying defensive record also indicates and the fact that they are 16 points behind their opponents in the Premier League after 16 games.
So although the history may point to a United win or a draw here, especially with Jose Mourinho likely to shut up shop and try and defend their way to a point, as they did at Anfield the last two seasons, I feel that this time, that tactic may backfire.
With Mo Salah hitting four goals in two games, the crucial Champions League win over Napoli and hitting top of the table last weekend, Liverpool are flying and a home game against their most fierce rivals is a perfect opportunity to punch home that advantage, as such I am expecting a home win here built on that resolute Liverpool back line.
The Cheeky Punter is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has worked for a number of top bookmakers including Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. He's also written for a number of leading news outlets including the Guardian, i (newspaper) and Soccer Lens. More about him here.