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Weekend Football Tips: 20th & 21st October

Premier League TipsIt’s back to the rough and tumble of the Premier League this weekend after a profitable round of international matches last week (£10 stakes up £18.30 across all tips).

We’ve got a cracking weekend is in store with Chelsea taking on Manchester United in the opening game and all the main title contenders, bar Arsenal, in action on Saturday for once, which is something of a rarity.

There are a number of other huge games as well in the south coast derby as Bournemouth take on Southampton while Tottenham face a tricky trip to West Ham in what looks like being a competitive derby match.

Lets get stuck in…

Football Betting Tips: Saturday 20th October

October 20, 2018
Chelsea
VS
Man Utd
Stamford Bridge
12:30 pm
Chelsea Logo
Chelsea
VS
Man Utd Logo
Man Utd
October 20, 2018
Stamford Bridge
12:30 pm
Key Stats
  • Chelsea are 2nd in the league on goal difference, but behind Man City on goal difference. They have scored 18 and conceded just 5 goals this season.
  • United lie in 8th in the table on 13 points scoring 13 goals but conceding a worrying 14 in their 8 games so far, heaping the pressure on manager Mourinho.
  • Chelsea have a superb recent record against United, losing just two of their last 16 games between the teams, stretching back to October 2012.
  • Across history, United have the most wins with 77 out of the 180 games between the teams, with Chelsea winning 54 and 49 matches have ended in draws.
Analysis:

If you look at recent form, Chelsea should win this game hands down. If you look at the recent record between the teams, especially at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea should win the game. Whatever way you look at the stats, this should be another home win for Chelsea.

However, Jose Mourinho has a knack of digging out results with his team. He managed to earn two draws with Liverpool last season, nuliifying their attack and then followed that up with a 3-2 win over Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium, City’s only home defeat in the league last season.

So I don’t think you can discount United completely from this game and I do feel they have enough talent to at least find the net, but the way Chelsea and in particular Eden Hazard are playing at the moment, I think this is going to be an extraordinarily difficult game for United to get something from.

I can’t see a thumping Chelse win, in the vein of their 4-0 win in the Premier League back in October 2016, but I can see the home side getting the better of this one, most likely by a 2-1 or maybe 3-1 scoreline.

Chelsea to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £36.00
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October 20, 2018
Bournemouth
VS
Southampton
Vitality Stadium
3:00 pm
Bournemouth Logo
Bournemouth
VS
Southampton Logo
Southampton
October 20, 2018
Vitality Stadium
3:00 pm
Key Stats
  • Bournemouth have had a superb start to the season, lying 6th, 4 points behind the 3 leading teams on 16 points and scoring 16 goals in the process (more than Liverpool & Spurs).
  • Southampton have just five points from their eight games and they have scored just 6 goals in those games. Only Palace, Cardiff and Huddersfield have fewer goals. They lie 16th.
  • Southampton have the better recent record in this fixture, winning six and losing just one of the last nine matches between the teams stretching back to August 2010.
  • The teams have only met 27 times previously in total, Southampton have 13 victories with seven for Bournemouth and seven games have ended in draws.
Analysis:

The contrasting fortunes of these two sides does make interesting reading. Bournemouth are flying at the moment and having stuck four past Leicester and Watford in recent weeks, they are firing on all cylinders in front of goal.

However, the Cherries can be defensively frail at times, as Burnley proved recently when they hammered Eddie Howe’s team 4-0 at Turf Moor, a result which will give the goal-shy Southampton attack a little comfort ahead of this south coast derby.

Mark Hughes team have flattered to deceive at times this season, their inconsistency is frustrating and their inability to score goals, while shipping them at the other end, makes me feel that this is going to be a long and difficult season for the Saints.

As such, while Southampton have had the better of this fixture in recent times, I feel this will be one occasion where past performance counts for little as I am expecting Bournemouth to win this one relatively comfortably, though I do feel Saints may grab a goal in consolation.

Bournemouth to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £39.00
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October 20, 2018
West Ham
VS
Tottenham
London Stadium
3:00 pm
West Ham Logo
West Ham
VS
Tottenham Logo
Tottenham
October 20, 2018
London Stadium
3:00 pm
Key Stats
  • Better recent form has moved West Ham up to 15th from the foot of the table, although they did lose their last game away to Brighton.
  • Spurs have recovered from recent defeats to win the six of their eight league games so far this season. They lie in 6th spot in the table.
  • West Ham have lost just one of the last four matches between the sides (two wins and a draw), they that loss did come in this fixture last season (3-2 win for Spurs).
  • Across history, Tottenham have won 94 games, West Ham 63 and there have been 52 draws out of the 209 matches between the two teams.
Analysis:

Tottenham’s defeats to Watford and Liverpool are the only blemishes on what has been a solid if unspectacular start to the season for Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham team. Lucas Moura’s early season form seems to have dropped off a little and injuries to Alli and Erkisen have blunted the usual Spurs goalscoring threat.

Whether both those key men are fit enough to return against West Ham remains to be seen, but it would be a surprise if both were to play. That may well play into the hands of West Ham who have drawn with Chelsea and beaten Manchester United in their past two home Premier League encounters.

Manuel Pellegrini’s team did lose last time out at Brighton in what was a lacklustre performance, but at home they look a much more formidable outfit and with Marko Arnautovic back in the team and scoring goals, they will pose Spurs back line, minus the injured Jan Vertonghen, a real threat.

Allied to a good record against Spurs, particularly at home, I think West Ham will get something from this game, although I can’t quite see them doing enough to clinch the win. As such, I think a draw is the most likely outcome here.

Draw - £10 returns £38.00
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Football Tips: Saturday 21st October

October 21, 2018
Everton
VS
Crystal Palace
Goodison Park
4:00 pm
Everton Logo
Everton
VS
Crystal Palace Logo
Crystal Palace
October 21, 2018
Goodison Park
4:00 pm
Key Stats
  • Everton lie 11th in the Premier League with 12 points, four ahead of Burnley in 12th. Palace lie in 14th place on 7 points.
  • Only Cardiff and Huddersfield have scored fewer goals than Crystal Palace in the Premier League this season (5).
  • Everton have won both of their last two games (Fulham and Leicester), while Palace have lost their previous two (Bournemouth and Wolves).
  • Everton have a good recent record against Palace, their last defeat coming in September 2014. They have won three and drawn four of the games between the teams since then.
Analysis:

Everton’s two wins from their last two games has helped them bounce back from a run of poorer results which saw them drop down the table and they face an opponent in Crystal Palace who have scored just five goals all season long in the Premier League.

That lack of goals is a real worry for Roy Hodgson, although to be fair to Palace, they are creating opportunities, but wasteful finishing in front of goal is costing them at least an extra four to six points on top of the seven they have collected this season.

The problem for Palace is that they face an Everton side which looks much better now that Richarlison is back in attack and with Gylfi Sigurdsson back in form and scoring goals, the Toffees are looking a much more potent outfit.

As such, I think the home side will win this one and although it won’t be a landslide win, I am expecting the Everton defence to hang on to a clean sheet here, which is a rarity, and I’m backing the home side to claim a 1-0 or 2-0 victory.

Everton to win to nil - £10 returns £32.50
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*Tips are exactly that tips (predictions) and do not guarantee success.

the Cheeky Punter
The Cheeky Punter is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has worked for a number of top bookmakers including Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. He's also written for a number of leading news outlets including the Guardian, i (newspaper) and Soccer Lens. More about him here.