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Weekend Football Tips: 28th & 29th December
by David Lenton
We made a small loss on our Boxing Day tips thanks to Jordan Ayew’s wonder goal for Crystal Palace against West Ham…
Had he decided not to invoke the spirit of Diego Maradona and the game had finished all square, we’d have landed another fabulous £30+ profit. So, considering that happened in the last minute, it was a little frustrating.
This will be the final set of tips for this year, with the next set coming for the New Year’s Day games on the 1st January, which should be interesting as it is the final set of Premier League games ahead of the start of the FA Cup Third Round.
We’ve gone for one game on Sunday, the big London derby clash between Arsenal and Chelsea, and a trio of games from Saturday.
Football Betting Tips: Saturday 28th December
December 28, 2019
St James' Park
December 28, 2019
St James' Park
Newcastle have lost just once at home this season, 1-0 to Arsenal in August.
Everton are unbeaten in their last four EPL games home and away.
Everton have won just once on the road this season at Southampton in November.
Everton have won nine of the last 13 matches between the two teams.
Newcastle come into this game on the back of a 4-1 defeat at Old Trafford, but despite that they have only lost at home once this season, on the opening day to Arsenal. Everton come into the game on the back of a good win over Burnley at Goodison, but the Toffees have a poor away record, winning just once on the road all season long.
Everton fans will be confident of getting something here given the arrival of Ancelotti and a run of four games without defeat, including games against Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd in that run. However, there’s just no doubting that at home Newcastle are very difficult to beat and they are also very tight defensively.
Everton are not a free scoring team and as such, I think they will manage just the one goal here and I don’t think that will be enough to win. The problem is, I can see Newcastle managing just the one goal too and as such, I think that a score draw is the most likely outcome in what should be a battling encounter on Saturday.
Watford have picked up four points out of the last six available to move to 19th.
Villa remain 18th despite their 1-0 win over Norwich on Boxing Day.
Watford have won the last two games between the teams, both by a 3-2 scoreline.
The teams have met just 19 times, with 7 wins apiece and 5 drawn games.
There are some very positive signs for Watford since the appointment of Nigel Pearson, after pushing Liverpool hard at Anfield, they followed that up with a win over Man Utd and then a solid point at Sheffield United on Boxing Day to move off the bottom of the table.
Aston Villa secured a vital win at home to Norwich on Boxing Day but the Villains remain in the relegation places and in truth,of the two sides, at the moment, it feels more like Watford have the momentum compared to the visitors today.
I also feel that the absence through injury of McGinn in midfield will heavily impact Villa especially in these crucial games against fellow strugglers. Watford have fewer injury issues and with Troy Deeney back in the team, they now have a real physical presence and focal point in attack. I think the Hornets are good enough to follow up that first home win of the season over Manchester United with a second win in succession here, although I do feel Villa will do enough to get a goal in consolation.
Watford to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £35.00
Burnley’s two game winning streak was ended thanks to a 1-0 defeat to Everton.
United thumped Newcastle 4-1 at Old Trafford on Boxing Day to move up to 7th.
Burnley have beaten Man Utd just once since 1968. 1 win in 27 games.
Burnley have however drawn once with United every season since August 2014.
Historically, Manchester United have had the better of this fixture, as you would expect, over the years, with Burnley’s sole win since 1968 coming when Robbie Blake scored in a 1-0 win back in August 2009.
However, in each of the last four years, Burnley have managed to draw one of their two EPL games with United in each season, most often at Old Trafford. So Sean Dyche’s men are capable of getting the job done against United, it just seems as though the odds and history suggest a United win.
The Red Devils were good against Newcastle, but they were beaten at Watford last time out and they have not shown any real consistency this season. Paul Pogba’s return could be a mixed blessing but I think in these games his quality on the ball can be the difference-maker and as such, I am backing Manchester United to come away with a narrow win and I think a 2-1 scoreline is the most likely outcome here.
Man Utd to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £40.00
Arsenal have won just one of their last 14 games in all competitions (at West Ham).
Chelsea have won just four of their last 11 in all competitions.
Arsenal have just five wins on the season, Chelsea have 10.
Chelsea have won just 2 of the last 9 v Arsenal (Arsenal winning four of those games).
What can you make of these two teams? Arsenal’s new boss Mikel Arteta saw an improvement in attitude in their 1-1 draw at Bournemouth but that result is hardly likely to convince Gunners fans that a quick fix is imminent. Chelsea fans will be happy that this game on the road as their home form at the moment is dreadful, with losses to Bournemouth and Southampton in their last two home EPL games.
Chelsea have picked up more points away from home than at home this season and with Arsenal in such a poor run of form, that does sway me more towards the visitors here. History suggests Arsenal have had the better of things in this fixture over the last five years or so, but Chelsea have won two of the last three between the two, including last season’s Europa League final in Baku.
Arsenal fans may still be smarting a little from that loss but I think they are going to have to wait a little longer to exact any revenge as I just can’t see how Arteta can turn this team into a top four contender with the resources he has available. I feel Chelsea are much further along that path than Arsenal are and I can see them using the counter attack well here to secure a win against a very leaky Arsenal back line. I do also feel that a 2-1 or 3-1 win is the most likely outcome, so both teams will likely score.
Chelsea to win & both teams to score - £10 returns £37.00
David 'the Cheeky Punter' Lenton is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has also worked for a number of top bookmakers including Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. With such a long time spent dedicated to the gambling industry no one is better placed when it comes to advising punters. Follow on Twitter @thecheekypunter