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Weekend Football Tips: 6th & 7th October
by David Lenton
We nailed a tasty +£25 return on £10 stakes last weekend and obviously I’m going to do my best for a repeat this time around.
We’re also up +£8.50 and +56.70 from European action this week.
It’s been a busy week, with both the Champions League and Europa League in full flow, meaning the tastier fixtures take place on Sunday culminating in Liverpool v Man City which obviously I’ve included in my tips below.
Unfortunately this is the final set of matches before the teams are broken up once again for another weekend of international games, including phase 2 of the Nations League.
Can’t wait for that… NOT… but for now lets get stuck in!
Football Betting Tips: Saturday 6th October
October 6, 2018
October 6, 2018
Palace’s inconsistent form has seen them move to mid-table in the Premier League, defensively they are strong, but scoring goals has been their biggest issue.
Despite only scoring eight goals, Wolves have lost just once in the Premier League this season, winning three and drawing the other three of their 7 games so far.
The last top-flight contest between these teams was back in 1981 and finished 0-0. Saturday’s game will be their first ever Premier League clash.
The teams have met 63 times in their history, Palace have won 20 of those games with Wolves winning 25 and 18 games have finished in draws.
While Wolves have been relatively consistent this season, Palace have been the exact opposite, looking strong in some games, playing well in defeat but then against weaker opposition, not taking their chances to win games that really they should have done. The games against Southampton and Newcastle at home being a case in point.
Wolves therefore seem to be the pick here, but I do worry about their lack of goals. They may have been free scoring in the Championship last season, but they have found goals much more difficult to come by in the Premier League and it was only two late goals that saw them take victory last weekend against Southampton.
Sooner or later, Palace are going to start taking the chances that they create against opponents and while Wolves are strong defensively, I can’t see the visitors scoring the two goals they may need to get a win here, while I can see Palace scoring one to perhaps negate the one Wolves will get.
I’ve been a bit cautious and gone for the standard draw bet here, rather than a both teams to score and draw bet to give me the 0-0 option as I think that or the 1-1 are by far the most likely results in this game.
Leicester have won four and lost three of their seven games so far this season to lie comfortably above the midway point in the league.
Everton’s nine points from their seven games leaves them in midtable, well clear of the drop zone but ten points behind the teams at the top.
Recent games between the teams have been shared with three wins apiece in their last six games. Leicester won the corresponding fixture last season 2-0 in October.
The historic record between the teams is relatively even with Everton posting 41 wins to Leicester’s 35 while 32 matches have finished in draws, the last in February 2015.
The historic record between these two teams is very evenly matched and recent games highlights that with the home team tending to come out on top in the games between the teams of late. I can see that pattern continuing here as Leicester should be buoyant given their solid 2-0 victory over Newcastle last weekend.
After a poor run of results, Everton got back to winning ways with a 3-0 win over a hapless Fulham side who were put to the sword later on in the game. However, Leicester are a far better defensive unit than the London side and I can’t see Everton having anywhere near as many chances as they did at home to Fulham.
As such, with Jamie Vardy starting to hit his best form of the season and James Maddison’s form earning attention from England boss Gareth Southgate, plus the timely return of Wes Morgan from suspension last week, I think this is a game that Claude Puel will be looking for his team to win.
I feel Leicester will achieve that and I think they’ll do so probably by a 2-1 scoreline, although I am hedging my bets and backing them just to win the match as it is still a decent value bet, given their performances at home this season.
No team has conceded more goals in the Premier League than Fulham with 16 (Huddersfield have conceded 16).
Arsenal have conceded 9 goals, but scored 14 and are in the top five after winning all of their last five Premier League matches.
Fulham have only beaten Arsenal once in the last 10 years, a 2-1 win at Craven Cottage back in January 2012.
The Gunners have a dominant record in this fixture over the historic meetings between the teams with 37 wins out of 55 games, Fulham winning 8 with 10 matches ending in draws.
Fulham are conceding goals at an alarming rate and it means that generally, they need to score at least three goals in a game to win it. That isn’t going to happen here against an Arsenal team who seem to be improving defensively after looking awful earlier on in the season.
The Gunner’s attacking ability is not in doubt and with Lacazette, Ozil and Aubameyang firing on all cylinders at the moment and looking a threat in front of goal, I can’t see a way that Fulham are going to keep them out defensively.
In truth, I can see Arsenal grabbing at least two goals in this game, probably more, but by the same token, Fulham do look dangerous at home and I can also see them grabbing a goal here, but I can’t see that being any more than a consolation.
Arsenal To Win & Both Teams To Score - £10 returns £27.00
Liverpool and City boast the best defensive records in the Premier League with just three goals conceded from their 7 games played, two better than the next best team.
City have scored 21 goals in their seven games to Liverpool’s 15, which is why City are top of the table on goal difference ahead of the Reds. The winner of this game will top the table.
City’s record against Liverpool is poor with just 3 wins and one draw in the last 12 games between the teams. Liverpool beat City three times in four matches last season.
City’s last win at Anfield came back in Mat 2003, when a Nicolas Anelka double handed City a 2-1 victory against the Reds.
The past few weeks has been a real test of Liverpool’s title credentials and if they can come through this run of games and head into the international break on top of the table, they will feel that they have done a great job. However, they face a massive test against a City side that is bang in form at the moment.
City have not conceded in their last three Premier League games, and have scored plenty of goals against a trio of lesser lights in the Premier League over that time. They should be fresher than the Reds too having played less intense games over the past few weeks.
However, City’s record at Anfield is awful and the Reds have proven to a bogey team for them, especially away from home, in recent times. Liverpool beat City three out of four times last season but that was when their front three was firing on all cylinders, something that hasn’t quite happened yet for the Reds.
It is precisely for this reason that I can’t back them to win here as I can see City scoring a goal against this Liverpool defence, but by the same token, Anfield will be rocking for what many are seeing as a potential title decider. After such a tough run of fixtures, the Reds may need to be happy with a point here in my view as I do see both teams finding the net here.
David 'the Cheeky Punter' Lenton is an ex professional online sports bettor and trader with over 15 years of experience in the industry. He has also worked for a number of top bookmakers including Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral. With such a long time spent dedicated to the gambling industry no one is better placed when it comes to advising punters. Follow on Twitter @thecheekypunter