Can Wales Reach the Euro 2024 Finals?

Author: Published: March 18, 2024
Harry Wilson Wales Euro 2024

Both England and Scotland will be playing at Euro 2024 this summer. Can Wales make their way through the play-offs that take place on March 21 and 26?

Wales will want to make it to Germany after recent appearances in both the Euro and World Cup finals. To have to spend this summer watching the Euro finals at home would be a big step backwards for them.

They finished third in qualifying group D behind Turkey and Croatia. Their place in the play-offs because of their Nations League ranking. It’s not exactly a great one because they were relegated from League A.

March 21 sees them host Finland in the first of what will hopefully be two play-off matches. If they can beat the Finns, then another home match will be played on March 26. The other semi-final sees Poland host Estonia.

The Welsh side won three of their eight qualifying matches, drawing the same number and losing at home to Armenia and away in Turkey.

Home form saw them beat Latvia and Croatia, draw with Turkey but surprisingly lose 4-2 to Armenia. They  finished four points behind the top two but the same number ahead of fourth placed Armenia. 

Wales failed to win either of their final two qualifiers. Armenia again were a thorn in their side with Wales getting a 1-1 away draw and needing to come from behind to get that point. Their final group match saw them held to a 1-1 home draw by Turkey.

Good home form

Current form is good for Wales with them unbeaten in their last six internationals. At home, they have gone four without defeat since that defeat by Armenia. That’s their only home defeat in their last six internationals with wins over Latvia, Gibraltar and Croatia. It’s 17/20 at bet365 they can beat the Finns.

Finland finished third in qualifying group H behind Denmark and Slovenia. Six of their ten matches were won but that still left them four points behind the top two. They also have their Nations League results to thank for making it into these play-offs. The Finns finished second behind Bosnia & Herzegovina in their League B group.

Finland’s away record will give Wales some confidence. They lost in Denmark and Slovenia, conceding three goals in each match. FInland had lost three successive matches before wins over a home win over Northern Ireland and a 2-1 away victory in San Marino. 

Wales are unbeaten in their last four internationals against Finland. The most recent game was a goalless draw in FInland three years ago. BetVictor offers odds of 11/5 on this play-off match being drawn. Wales beat them 3-1 in their last home match against the Finns. Finland are 10/3 at William Hill to win this match.

Poland should progress

The other semi-final should produce a home win for Poland. The Poles also had to rely on the Nations League to stay in this tournament. They ended qualifying group E in third place behind Albania and the Czech Republic, trailing the Czechs by four points. They won three of their group fixtures, lost the same number and drew the other two.

They host Estonia and in their qualifying group won a couple of home matches in their qualifying group but lost the other two. It was their away form that proved costly with three of their four matches being lost.

They come into this match unbeaten in their last four internationals. Home form is good with no defeats in their last six matches.  William Hill gives odds of 1/5 on Poland beating Estonia.

Estonia came bottom in qualifying group F with just one point from their eight qualifiers. Only two goals were scored and 22 conceded. The only point earned as an away draw in Azerbaijan. They’ve gone 11 games without a win and gone 14 on the road without a win.

How are they in the play-offs? They have made it due to winning their group in the 2022/23 Nations League. Estonia finished top above mighty Malta and San Marino in League D. With 17 of their last 19 matches ending in defeat, they are 14/1 at BetVictor to win this match. A draw after 90 minutes is 11/2 at William Hill.

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